泛亚电竞

英镑走势: 回归基本面

发布:泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞app怎么下载-官网APP下载 2013-12-09 11:03 来源:泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞app怎么下载-官网APP下载 《中国外汇》2014年20期
在当前世界经济复苏的背景下,英镑仍然是仅次于美元的强劲货币。中长期内,英镑兑美元将延续近年的周期性趋势特征.

2014nianyilai,yingguojingjiqiangjingfusu,daidongyingbangchixuzouqiang: yingbangduimeiyuanhuilvbuduanzougao,zai7yue2richuangxiawuniangaodian1.7169(jianfutu)。dancihou,sugelanduligongtoudezhengzhifengxianduishichangdeyingxiangzhujianjiada,shide7yueyilaizhijiuyuezhongxunyingbangduimeiyuanchixuxiadieyue10%。9yue19ri,sugelangongtouduliweiguo,yingbangduimeiyuanhuilvsuizhi1.6312,duanshijianneishixiandafushangzhang。suizhesugelangongtoudeyingxiangzhujianxiaotui,touzizhedeguanzhujiaodianjiangzhongxinhuidaoyingguojingjijibenmian、yangxingzhengcejililvqianjingshang。

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泛亚电竞 2008~2014nianyingbangduimeiyuanzoushi

资料来源:泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞app怎么下载-官网APP下载

基本面趋好并有隐忧

泛亚电竞 sugelangongtoujieshuhou,yingbangduimeiyuansuijifandan,fanyingleshichangduiyingguojibenmianqingkuangdekanhao。shishishang,jinnianqianliangjidu,yingguojingjidefusushitoudequeshifenlianghao。diyi,yingguogdpzengzhanglvchixushangsheng,2014niandiyi、erjidufenbiewei3.0%he3.2%。tebieshidierjidu,gdpzengzhanglvyuangaoyudeguode0.8%、faguode0.1%hemeiguode2.5%,chuang2007niandisijiduyilaidezuigaozengzhanglv。dier,yingguozhuyaocaizhengzhibiaoyeshixianhaozhuan,rucaizhengchizizhanguoneishengchanzongzhidebilicong2009~2010cainian(jiezhi2010nian3yuedi)de11.4%jiangzhi2013~2014cainiande5.8%,qieyujizai2018~2019cainianshixiancaizhengyusuanyingyu。caizhenghaozhuanzhuyaodeyiyuyingguozhengfutongguocaizhengjinsuozhengce,caijianrongyuanhejieshengkaizhi,tigaoxiaoshoushuihezengzhishui,yijidiaozhengshehuifulizhichuxiangmu。ciwai,zhengfuyezaijilixunzhaojinsuocaizhenghewendingjingjidepinghengdian,licuwendingzhongchanjiejibingzhichizhongxiaoxingsiyingqiye,juticuoshibaokuo: zhubutigaogeshuiqizhenge,zhunianjiangdiqiyeshuilv,duizhongxiaoqiyetigongxilieguyongbuzhudeng。shishishang,yingguogushicong2009nianyilaiyizhichuyushangshengqushi,jinniansugelangongtouzhihoudegushishangzhangyefanyingleshichangduiyuyingguojingjichixuhaozhuandexinxin。

泛亚电竞 buguo,dangqianyingguojingjiyecunzaiyixiebukehushidewenti。youqishijinlaigongbudeyixieshuju,youhaoyouhuai,suiranbuzhiyuyingxiangdaoyingguojingjidezhengtitaishi,danyehuiduiyingbangzoushichanshengyidingdeyingxiang。yizhiyilaiyingguojiaoweituchudeyixiangwentishimaoyichizi。dangqian,yingguojingchangxiangmuyuezhangdpdebiliyou2010niande-1.2%,2013niande-3.8%,shangshengdao2014nian(muqian)de-4.4%。waixuchixuxiajiangdaozhidejingchangxiangmunicha,congzhangyuankanjianghuiyingxiangdaoyingguojingjifusuhehuilvshengzhi。10yue10zuixinfabudeshujuxianshi,yingguo8yuehuowumaoyichizi90.99yiyingbang,fanyadianjingmaoyiyingyuzewei72yiyingbang,maoyichizi(jingchangxiangmuchizi)jiaozhiqianyousuoshouzhai,chuangsigeyuelaizuidishuiping,yuanyinzaiyuhuowumaoyidejinkoubichukouxiajiangdegengkuai,yingguoyangxingxingzhangkaniyeqiangdiao,yingguozhuyaochukoushichangdexuqiuyijiudimi,gonggongzichanfuzhaibiaoxiufuhaizaijixu。tongshi,yingguodezhizaoyezekaishichuxianfanghuandejixiang,9yuelundunfangjiayeyusannianlaishoucixiajiang。erminjianbumenfuzhaigaoqi,kenengduiyulilvyouqimingan。yingguoyangxingzai8yuedetongzhangbaogaozhong,fachu2014nianchuxinzizengzhangyijiupiruandejinggao: erjidushenzhixiajiangzhi1%zuoyou。ergenjuyingyangxingdebiaotai,xinzifusuchengduduijiaxijinchengjuyouzhongyaoyiyi。kanidejianghua,yezaiyidingchengdushangyingxiangdaoshichangduiyuyingguohuobizhengcejililvqianjingdeyuqi。

加息领先但或推迟

泛亚电竞 keyishuo,zi2009nianyilai,yingguodehuobizhengcehejinrongshichangjiushizhongchuyuwendingdezhuangtai。zheiyumeiguo、riben、ouyuanquyouxianzhubutong。yingguojinrongweijiyilaiyezhishishileyilunkuansonghuobizhengce,toufangle3750yiyingbang。ciwai,yingguodejizhunlilvzi2009nianyilaizhijinyizhiwendingzai0.5%,qie10yue9rideyingguoyangxing10yuelilvjueyiyezaicizhongshenlejiangweichi0.5%delilvshuiping。chixuwendingdedililv,gulilejiatingzhichuheqiyetouzi,cujinlejingjizengzhang。lingyifangmian,yingguoyangxinghuobiweiyuanhui2013nian8yuefabudeguanyuhuobizhengcedeqingxide、lianghuadeqianzhanzhiyin,yeqidaolewendingqidezuoyong,shideqihuobizhengcezaikongzhiwujiawendingheshixianjinrongwendingdeyuanzehetiaojianxia,quebaolebenguojingjifusudechixuhequanmianxing,qidaolejiangdishiyelvdemude。yingguoqianqixiangduileguandejingjijibenmian,yeshideshichangyujiyingguoyangxinghuizai2015nianyingguodaxuanhoudediergejidushenzhigengzaojiukaishijiaxi。zheiyuanyuanlingxianyuou、ridengfadaguojia。keyishuo,huobizhengcefangmian,yingbangwuyijuyoujiaoweijianqiangdezhicheng。buguo,ruqiansuoshu,jinlaiyingguoyouhaoyouhuaidejingjishujuyelingshichangduiyingyangxingjiaxideshijianchanshengleyanchidetuice,duanqineijianghuiduiyingbangdezoushixingchengyidingdeyazhi。

danzhengtishangkan,yingguorengjuyouxiangduilianghaodejibenmianhexiangduilingxiandehuobizhengceqianjing。zhengrukanizai9yuesuoshuo,muqianyingguodabufenjingjitiaojianyijingshixianzhengchanghua,yingguoyangxingyuelaiyuejiejinshoucijiaxideshijiandian。yingbangjiangjixushoudaojibenmiandezhicheng,danduanqidebiaoxianrengqujueyuyuqitabizhongjingjijibenmianyuzhengcedejieduanxingchayi。

三种货币对走势有别

zaidangqianquanqiujingjifusuzhengtipiruanqiebupinghengdeqingkuangxia,yingbangduimeiyuanhefeimeiyuanhuobidehuilvzoushijiangbiaoxianbutong。

shouxian,yingbangrenghuishoudaomeiyuandeyazhi。meiyuanjinqizoushiqiangjing,qiemeiguojiaxiyuqibuduanshengwen。meiguolilvyixiangshixiyinhuishijiaoyishangdeguanjianyinsu,jiaxijiangcujinguowaizibenliuru,baochimeiyuanshangzhangqushi。yuyingbangxiangjiao,youyumeiguojingjizaiquanqiujingjifusuzhongdeyinlingzuoyong,meiyuanqiangyuyingbang,meiyuanzouqianghuiduiyingbangchanshengyazhizuoyong。zheicong2009nianyilaideyingbangduimeiyuanhuilvkeyikandeyiqingerchu。yingbangduimeiyuanhuilvyoujicizhouqi,jibenyizhizai1.4~1.7zhijianzhendang,qiezhouqidejieduanxingdingbujunzai1.7zuoyou,jishi2014nianyilaiyingbangbiaoxianjiaoweiqiangshi,yerengshizai2014nian7yuede1.7dedingdianhuiluo。suirancicihuiluoshishougongtoudengzhengzhiyinsuyingxiang,dantongyangbiaoxianchuciqiandezhouqixingtezheng。yinci,jiuduanqilaikan,yingbangduimeiyuancicidiaozhengyijingdaoyinianlaidedibu,cihoujianghuichuxianhuisheng;mingnianchu,suizheyingyangxingjiaxishijiandiandelailin,youkenenghuijixuweichishengshi。dannengfouxingchenggaodian,zequjueyuyingguojingjidejieduanxingzhuangkuang。

泛亚电竞 yingbangduiouyuanzaiduanqihezhangqizedoujiangjixuweichiqiangshi。ouyuanqujingjifusuchihuan,bufenhexinguojiadezengzhangjihutingzhi。congshujushangkan,ouyuanquxianruleditongzhanghejingjizengzhangfanghuandekunjing: 2014niandierjidu,ouyuanquhuanbigdpzengsuweiling;ouyuanquzhengtidezhizaoye、fanyadianjingyedekuozhangsudujunxiaofuxiahua,zonghezhizaoyecaigoujinglirenzhishu(pmi)jiangzhi2014nianyilaidiwei52.8,xianshiqiyehuodongkuozhangdefudulvediyuyuqi;ciwai,bufenouyuanquhexinguojiadetouzihechukouchuxianxiaxing,erjidudetouzihuanbizengsuzhiyoudeguo、xibanya、helanjibenhaizaizhengzengzhangqujianbodong,faguoheyidalizefenbiewei-1.6%he0.1%,tebieshifaguozhizaoyeyufanyadianjingye,zai9yuefengengshishuangshuangxianruweisuo。ouzhouyangxingzongcaidelajichengnuo,zaiouyuanquchaoditongzhanghuishengzhi2%zhiqian,yangxinghuiweichikuansonghuobizhengce。danouyuanqulianghuakuansongzhengcedexiaoguoruhe,zeyoudaijianyan。jianyuouyuanqumianlindegaoshiye、gaozhaiwuhechijiudeditongzhangdengjiegouxingmaodundeduanqifengxian,yijijishujinbufanghuanherenkoulaolinghuadengzhangqiweixie,qijingjiqianjingyingbingbuleguan。zaimeiguoheyingguojijiangburujiaxitongdaodebeijingxia,ouyuandekuansonghuobizhengcehefulilvdoujiangyadiouyuanhuilv。muqianyingbangduiouyuanhuilvzaichixuzougao,10yue1riyida1.2866;erweilaizougaoqushihuojianggengjiamingxian。

泛亚电竞 ciwai,yingbangduiriyuanyejiangchixuzouqiang。ribenjingjizaitigaoxiaofeishuihou,2014niandierjiduzengzhangweisuofuduchaochuyuqi,qigaoegonggongzhaiwuhechuyujidishuipingdeqianzaizengzhanglvjiribenzhengfudailaileyanjundehongguanjingjihecaizhengtiaozhan。riyuanzeyouyuqichaokuansongdehuobizhengce,rengranchuyubianzhizhouqizhizhong,yingbangduiriyuandeshengshiyejiangyincijixu。

genjuguojihuobijijinzuzhi10yue8ride《shijiejingjizhanwangbaogao》,muqiandeshijiejingjizhengtizaifusuhezengzhang,danxiaxingfengxianyeyiranmingxian。keyishuo,zaidangqianshijiejingjifusudebeijingzhixia,yingbangrengranshijinciyumeiyuandeqiangjinghuobi。zhengtieryan,duanqinei,yingbangduimeiyuanrengranweichizhendanghuoyouxiatan;zhongzhangqinei,yingbangduimeiyuanzejiangyanxujinniandezhouqixingqushitezheng,jixiangduiwending,yinqidibuyoujingjijibenmianzhichi,dingbuzeshoudaomeiyuanyazhi。ruguoyingyangxingmingnianlvxianjiaxi,yingbangyouwangshengzhixingaodian,houjixushangsheng;danmeiyuandeyazhizuoyonghuiyirancunzai。eryingbangduifeimeihuobizeyousuobutong,jibenhuibaochijiaoqiangtaishi。youyuouzhouyangxingheribenyangxingdouhenkenengjianchichaokuansonghuobizhengce,yingbangduiouyuanheriyuanjiangyanxuyinianlaideshangzhangqushi。

 

作者单位: 国家发改委外经所国际金融室

泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞app怎么下载-官网APP下载1

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