泛亚电竞

【双语】货币供应新方式: 近忧与远虑

展望未来,如果房价上涨、汇率下跌的预期能有所企稳,面对巨额的流动性缺口,货币政策能辅以小幅渐进、多次灵活的调整法定存款准备金率,或有利于“稳健中性”政策目标的实在。

huobigongyingxinfangshi: jinyouyuyuanlv

泛亚电竞 is it time to be less innovative in managing domestic liquidity?

 

2016nianyilai,fanyadianjingguodehuobigongyingchengxianchuyuguoqujieranbutongdefangshi: yangxingjishaodongyongfadingcunkuanzhunbeijinlvgongju,quedaliangshiyonglegezhongchuangxingongju,ruchangbeijiedaibianli(slf)、zhongqijiedaibianli(mlf)、diyabuchongdaikuan(psl)jiqitagongkaishichangcaozuolaitigongyinxingjianshichangliudongxing。2017nianchu,yangxinghaituichulinshiliudongxingbianli(tlf)laihuanjieduanqideliudongxingjinzhang。jutongji,2016nianyangxingtongguonihuigouxiangshichangtoufangdeliudongxinggongjiyue25wanyiyuan,shi2015niande6.66bei;tongguomlfxiangshichangtoufangdeliudongxinggongji5.52wanyi,shi2015niande2.41bei。

over the last year, china's central bank has relied on a new set of tools to manage domestic liquidity. it has rarely adjusted the deposit reserve ratio – once a favored instrument of liquidity management – and instead turned to a variety of innovative open market tools, such as the standing loan facility (slf), the medium-term lending facility (mlf) and pledged supplementary lending (psl). in early 2017, the central bank also introduced the temporary liquidity facility (tlf) to ease short-term liquidity tightness. according to official statistics, in 2016 the central bank made use of about 25 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase agreements, 6.66 times the 2015 total. it also injected about 5.52 trillion yuan of liquidity through the mlf, 2.41 times the 2015 total.

chengran,zaihuilvyuqibuwen、zichanjiagegaoqidehongguanbeijingxia,shangshuchuangxingongjuqueshinengzaiyidingchengdushanghuanjiewaihuizhankuanxiajiangyinzhideliudongxingduanque,danyucitongshi,fanyadianjingyezhuyidaoyinxingjianshichangdebodongmingxianjiaju,shichangduihuobishulianghezijinjiagedeyuqiyouxiewenluan,shenzhihaibaoluchubufenshangyeyinxingdiyapinjinzhangdengxinwenti。2016niandi,zhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyimingquetichuyao“shiyinghuobigongyingfangshixinbianhua,diaojiehaohuobizhamen”。neime2017nian,zaihuobizhengce“wenjianzhongxing”dejidiaoxia,shangshuhuobigongyingfangshishifoukeyichixu?yinxingjianshichangdejiayuliangdemaodunruheyanjin?zhunbeijinlvdediaozhengshifouzhideqidai?zheixiedoushishichangguanzhuderedianwenti。

泛亚电竞 in a period of volatile exchange rates and high asset prices, these innovative tools have alleviated problems with liquidity shortages resulting from the reduction in foreign exchange inflows and exchange purchases by the central bank. however, at the same time, it is clear that the fluctuations in the inter-bank market are becoming more drastic and there is much uncertainty over the direction of liquidity and asset prices. moreover, the supply of mortgage lending by commercial banks has been tighter than usual. in late 2016, the central economic work conference made it clear that new money supply management tools were needed. in 2017, with the central bank maintaining its prudent and neutral monetary policy stance, should it also stick to this formula for money supply management? if so, how will this contradiction between pricing and liquidity work itself out on the inter-bank market? and should the market expect adjustments in the bank deposit reserve ratio? these are issues of considerable concern.

 

jichuhuobishihuobizhengcemubiaom2dezengzhangjichu,yeshiyangxingkeyidiaokongde“liudongxingzhamen”。 ruguoyaoyuceweilaiyinxingjianshichangliudongxingquekouyouduoda,jiushiyaogusuanweileshixianjidingdegdpyijim2mubiao,liudongxingxuqiuheliudongxinggongjizhijiandequekouyouduoda,ji: liudongxingquekou=liudongxingxuqiu-liudongxinggongji。

base money is the foundation for the m2 monetary policy target. liquidity demand minus liquidity supply determines the liquidity gap. in order to predict the size of the future liquidity gap in the inter-bank market, it is necessary to estimate the difference between liquidity supply and demand under conditions where the gross domestic product and m2 money supply targets are reached.

 

流动性需求

Liquidity Demand

泛亚电竞 tongchangkan,liudongxingdexuqiukeyouguangyihuobim2demubiaogongjiliangchuyihuobichengshucesuandechu。jiyu2017nianm2demubiaozengzhanglvwei12%,neimedao2017niandim2xuyaozengjia18.6wanyiyuanzhi173.6wanyiyuan。guanyuhuobichengshudeyuce,kaolvdao2012nianhougaizhiyiludanbianshangxing,yincibushiyucaiquguoqujiniandepingjunzhiquyupan。zhanwang2017nian,zaiyangxinggengjiayanlidexindaizhengcehejinrongqugangangdebeijingxia,jiashehuobichengshujiqixindainenglihuobuhuijinyibukuozhang,zekecaiyong2016niandejidupingjunzhi5.12jinsizuowei2017niandehuobichengshu。zaishangshuqingxingxia,2017nianmoliudongxingxuqiuyingdadao33.9wanyiyuan,jiao2016nianmode30.9wanyiyuanyuexuxinzeng3wanyiyuan。

it is generally believed that demand for liquidity can be calculated by dividing the target supply of the m2 broad money supply by the money multiplier. based on the targeted m2 growth rate of 12% for 2017, m2 will increase by 18.6 trillion yuan to reach 173.6 trillion yuan by the end of the year. the money multiplier has been steadily increasing since 2012. but amid tighter credit policies and financial deleveraging, we might use the 2016 quarterly average money multiplier of 5.12 as the quarterly average for 2017. if this is in fact the case, liquidity demand should reach 33.9 trillion yuan in 2017, which would mean an increase of 3 trillion yuan from the level at the end of 2016.

 

流动性供给

Liquidity Supply

waihuizhankuandezengjian。2016nianmodexinzengwaihuizhankuanwei-2.9wanyiyuan,jiangfujiaoda。2017nian1yueyilai,waihuizhankuanjiangfushouzhai。tebieshi2yuefen,waihuichubeishenzhichuxianyiwaihuisheng,zibenwailiuchengxianchujianruodejixiang。jinguanruci,meilianchurengchuzaijiakuaijiaxidezhouqizhong,zhongmeimaoyimocazengjiadegailvyiranjiaoda。zongheshangshuqingkuang,fanyadianjingguji2017nianwaihuizhankuankenengrenghuixiajiang,danjiangfuhuixianzhuxiaoyu2016nian。yujiquannianwaihuizhankuanxiahuafanweiyuezai1.1wanyiyuandao3wanyiyuanzhijian。

泛亚电竞 in 2016, foreign exchange purchases showed a net decline equivalent to 2.9 trillion yuan. since january 2017, the decline has eased, however, and in february, the nation's foreign exchange reserves showed an unanticipated recovery, with capital outflows showing signs of weakening. nevertheless, there are reasons to be wary of renewed capital outflows. the us federal reserve is still likely to be raising interest rates and there is still considerable potential for sino-us trade friction. it is therefore likely that foreign exchange purchases may still decline, by anywhere from 1.1 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan.

liudongxinggongjutoufangjidaoqi。2016nianpinfanshiyongdegezhongliudongxinggongjuzai2017nianjijiangdaliangdaoqi,zheiwuyishidaozhiweilailiudongxingjihuobigongyingjianshaodezhongyaoyinsu,yeshiqubieyuwangnianliudongxingtoufangdezuidatedian。jutongji,2017niangezhongliudongxinggongjukuaniandaoqiliangyuewei7.1wanyiyuan,qizhongmlfshizuidadegouchengbufen。jutikan,congqunianqiujikaishi,yangxingzhongqile14tianhe28tiannihuigou,bingqiejiangmlfdecaozuoshuliangtishengzhi7000yiyuanzuoyou。zheijiangdaozhijinniannihuigoudekuaniandaoqiliangjiaoqianyinianzengjia1.2wanyiyuan,mlfdekuaniandaoqiliangtongbizengjia2.79wanyiyuan。youqizaijinxiabannian,daoqiyalijiangmingxianzengda。

泛亚电竞 a number of liquidity tools used in 2016 are about to expire in 2017, which would lead to a reduction in liquidity and money supply, a sharp divergence from the liquidity expansion in previous years. according to official statistics, there are about 7.1 trillion yuan of various liquidity tools set to expire in 2017 and the mlf accounts for much of this. last fall, the central bank resumed its 14-day and 28-day reverse repurchases and raised the operational mlf total to 700 billion yuan. this will mean this year's reverse repurchases will increase by 1.2 trillion yuan over the tally of the previous year. it will also mean there will be 2.79 trillion yuan of maturing mlfs moving into the new year. the pressure from these expiring contracts will have a substantial impact on market liquidity, especially in the second half of the year.

 

泛亚电竞 2016nianmo30.9wanyiyuanliudongxinggongjidejichuzhishang,2017niandewaihuizhankuanyuguxiahua1.1wanyidao3wanyiyuan,liudongxinggongjudaoqiyue7.1wanyiyuan。zheixieyinsuhuishide2017niandeliudongxinggongjishuliangjiaoshangyiniangongjianshaoyue8.2wanyidao10.1wanyiyuan,dadao20.8wanyiyuandao22.7wanyiyuan。

泛亚电竞 at the end of 2016, on top of a liquidity supply of 30.9 trillion yuan, it is expected that the foreign exchange purchase position will fall by 1.1 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan in 2017. additionally, expiring liquidity tools will amount to about 7.1 trillion yuan. these factors will reduce the supply of liquidity by 8.2 trillion to 10.1 trillion yuan for a total of 20.8 trillion yuan to 22.7 trillion yuan in 2017.

流动性缺口

Liquidity Gap

泛亚电竞 jiyushangshuliudongxingxuqiuhegongjidecesuan,fanyadianjingyuji,2017nianliudongxingquekouwei11.2wanyi—13.1wanyiyuanzhijian,jiao2016nianjixuzengduo1wanyi—4wanyiyuan。zonghelaikan,jinguanjinnianm2zengsumubiao(12%)diyuqunian(13%),qiewaihuizhankuanxiahuayaliyouwangxiangduijianhuan,danjinnianliudongxinggongjudaoqideshuliangjiangbiqunianxianzhuduochu5wanyizuoyou。juedeliudongxinggongjudaoqi,jiangchengweijinnianliudongxingquekoudezhongyaolaiyuan,bingshideliudongxingquekoudayuqunian。

泛亚电竞 based on these calculations, the liquidity gap in 2017 is likely to range from 11.2 trillion yuan to 13.1 trillion yuan, up 1 trillion yuan to 4 trillion yuan from 2016. this year's 12% growth target for m2 is below last year's 13% pace but the decline in foreign exchange purchases is expected to be relatively slower. however, this year the number of liquidity tool contracts that are expiring will be much greater than last year's total – probably by about 5 trillion yuan. this will also be an important contributor to the liquidity gap this year.

 

货币供应的创新方式可否持续

More of the Same Policies?

kaolvdaoliudongxingquekoudebuduanzengda,jinniandehuobizhengcekefouyanyongquniansilujiandandi“tiliangxuzuo”ni?zaifadingcunkuanzhunbeijinlvweichizaigaoweideqingxingxia,chuantongdezhunbeijinlvgongjuyoushifouyoushishidiaozhengdekeneng?yaohuidazheixiewenti,fanyadianjingrenweiyoubiyaorenzhenshenshiguoquyiduanshijianchuangxinxingliudongxinggongjudeliyubi,yitansuogengyouhuadezhengcegongjuzuhe。shishishang,zaiguoneifangjiagaoqi、huilvbianzhiyuqiqiangliedexianshitiaojianxia,shangshuchuangxingongjuqueshidui2016nianhongguanjingjidepingwenyunxingfahuilezhongyaozuoyong。danyucitongshi,suizheliudongxingquekoudebuduanjiada,youguanchuangxindeliudongxingtigongfangshidebiduanyezhujianbaoluchulai。

given that the liquidity gap is growing, should this year's monetary policy be more of the same or would it be wise to employ the more traditional monetary tool of adjusting the still high deposit ratio? to answer this question, it is necessary to carefully examine the pros and cons of the innovative liquidity tools of the recent past and explore other possible combinations of policy tools. in fact, when domestic housing prices are high and there are strong expectations of exchange rate depreciation, innovative monetary tools have played an important role in keeping the economy running smoothly. however, with the growing liquidity gap, the disadvantages of this past approach are becoming increasingly obvious.

yishiyinxingjianshichanglilvbodongxingxianzhuzengjia,“jiajiamaodun”shichangfasheng。yigeye、7tianheyigeyuedeyinxingjianzhiyashihuigoulilvweili,zaiqunianliudongxingcaozuozuiduodediyijiduhedisijidu,junchengxianchudafubodong。tebieshi2016niansijiduzhijin,suizhecaozuoguimozengda,yijizhengcegongjuzhongxinwangzhongzhangqidemlfshangzengjia,duanqihechaoduanqililvzhendangfuduxianzhushenggao。congshijiandianlaikan,geyehuigoulilvzhenfudejiada,fashengzaiyangxingzhongqi14tianhe28tiannihuigouzhihou;cong2016nian12yuefenkaishibodongjiajude1yueqihuigoulilv,yeqiaqiajinsuizaimlftoufangguimojiadazhihou。

泛亚电竞 interest rates on the inter-bank market have shown increased volatility of late. the overnight, seven-day and one-month bond repurchase rates on the inter-bank market, for example, showed significant volatility in the first quarter of this year and the fourth quarter of last year. these two quarters saw substantial open market operations, including the use of the medium and long-term mlf, which had an indirect impact on short-term interest rates. an upturn in the overnight bond repurchase interest rate occurred after the central bank resumed 14-day and 28-day reverse repurchases. beginning in december 2016, the fluctuations in the one-month bond repurchase interest rate also mirrored the expanded use of the mlf.

shangshuxianxiangsihushuoming,yangxingruotongshikongzhiduanqihezhongqideduogezhengcelilv,rongyizaochengruoganzhengcelilvyuduogeshichanglilvzhijiandejiagechayi,shenzhidaozhitongyiqixiandebutongpinzhongzhijianchuxianmingxianjiacha,jinerchuxiantongqixianbutongjiagede“jiajiamaodun”,jiajushichanglilvbodong。shishishang,zaiyangxingtongshikongzhiduanqihezhongqizhengcelilvdeqingxingxia,duanqishichanglilvhuitongshishoudaozhongqizhengcelilvheduanqizhengcelilvdegongtongyingxiang,congerxingchengshichanglilvyanjindeduozhongjunhenglujing,qibodongxingshibihuizengda。

this suggests that when the central bank takes steps to influence short-term and medium-term policy rates at the same time, this can result in price distortions between policy rates and market rates and even different market rates for instruments with the same maturities. when the central bank tries to influence short-term and medium-term policy interest rates at the same time, the short-term market interest rate will show the combined effects of these rates. greater volatility ensues.

ershishichangyuqichuxianliangyujiazhijiandewenluan,“liangjiamaodun”riyituxian。guoyupinfandechuangxinxinggongjudedaliangyunyong,shideshichangnanyichongfenlijieqijiageheshuliangbiandongsuoshifangdexinhao,rongyixingchengchongjixiaoyingbingdaozhishichangyuqiwenluan。jinnianchunjieqianhou,yangxingfenbieshangdiaolemlf、slfyijinihuigoulilv,henduotouzizhejieduweiyangxingfachujinsuode“jiaxi”xinhao;eryangxingzerenwei,lilvshangxingshishichanghuazhaotoubiaodejieguo,shizaizijingongqiuyingxiangxia“suixingjiushi”debiaoxian。fanyadianjingrenwei,zaochengyangxingyushichangzhijianyuqijilijiebuyizhidegenbenyuanyin,shiyangxingdemubiaoguoyuduoyuanhua——jixiangdiaokongliudongxingdeshuliangyouxiangbaozhuqijiage,ruciliangzhejiangujiurongyiyinfa“liangjiamaodun”

the excessively frequent use of these innovative tools makes it difficult for the market to fully comprehend the signals from the changes in prices and quantity. this tends to have an impact on market expectations. before the spring festival this year, the central bank raised the interest rates on the mlf, slf and reverse repurchases. many market participants interpreted this as the central bank issuing a signal of an impending rate hike. meanwhile, the central bank viewed the higher interest rates as merely a reflection of greater market demand. some market participants maintained that the discrepancy between the perception of the market and the people's bank of china was due to the multiple objectives of the central bank – namely controlling the supply of liquidity and holding the line on liquidity prices as well.

liangshangkan,jinnian1yue,yangxingdemlftoufangguimobujinduichongledangyuedaoqidemlfshuliang,haikaolvdaolechunjiehoude1.5wanyiyuangongkaishichangcaozuodedaoqi。yejiushishuo,yangxingyizaiweichizijinshuliangdewending。yucitongshi,shichanglilvqueyuzhengcelilvdepianchayuelaiyueda,mlfzhengcelilvbudebu“beidong”shangdiao。kejian,zhengcelilvjishiyangxingyindaoshichanglilvzoushidegongju,dantongshiyehuishoudaoshichanglilvdezhiyue。zhengtilaikan,dangyi“liang”weizhongxinshiyongliudongxinggongjudanqijiagezhidingyouyushichangyousuopianlishi,zhengcelilvwangshichanglilvdiaozhengjiupianguochengzhongdegezhongbiandongdourongyibeitouzizheguodujiedu,jinerfashengshichangyuqidewenluan。qianqi“lilvshangdiao+liudongfangliang”dezuhe,shishishangyinfaleshichangyuyangxingzhijiandelijiepiancha。zheibuliyuhuobizhengcedeyuqiyindao。ershishishang,yuqiguanlishizhiguanzhongyaode。

in january, the central bank's use of newly issued mlf not only offset the maturing instruments but also covered the 1.5 trillion yuan set to expire after the spring festival in february. the central bank's objective at the time was to ensure a stable supply of liquidity in the market. but the gap between market interest rates and policy interest rates was getting wider, and that meant the mlf policy interest rate had to be raised. while the policy interest rates are a tool for the central bank to guide market interest rates, they also are influenced by market rates. when the focus of liquidity tools is on quantity and the price of the liquidity instrument deviates from market rates, market expectations can be disrupted. the result can be misunderstandings between the market and the central bank. this is not conducive to the market guidance needed to conduct monetary policy as the central bank needs to manage market expectations.

sanshiyinxingjianshichangdiyapinzhuojinjianzhou,“shuliangmaodun”fuchushuimian。xianjieduanyangxingdeliudongxingtigongwangwangdouyaojinrongjigouyoudiyapinzhichi。muqian,jinrongjigoudediyapinzhuyaoshililvzhai。genju2017nian1yuemodeshujucesuan,gongkaishichangnihuigouxuyaolilvzhaileidiyapin2.05wanyiyuan,mlfxuyaodiyapin3.68wanyiyuan,jiashanggusuandeyinxingjianzhiyashihuigouzhonglilvzhaiyuewei4wanyiyuan,zongguimodayuewei9.73wanyiyuan。jinguanjinnian1yuemoshangyeyinxingchiyoudelilvzhaiguimowei15.3wanyiyuan,yuandayugongkaishichangcaozuosuoxudediyapin9.73wanyi,danhaixukaolvyinxingweilemanzuliudongxingfugailv(lcr)kaohesuoxuyaochiyoudeyouzhiliudongzichanzhongdelilvleidiyapinguimo。yilcrbilvjiaogaodewudaxingweililaijisuan,wudaxingzhishaoxuyao8.20wanyideyijizichan,gusuanchuquanbushangyeyinxingxuyaolilvleidiyapinwei11.71wanyi。ruguozaidiejiazhangqizijinmlfsuoxudediyapin3.68wanyiyuan,yigongshi15.39wanyiyuan,yijingxiaofuchaoguolemuqianshichangshangdelilvzhaicunliang15.3wanyiyuan。suiranyangxingkeyikuochonglilvzhaizhiwaidezhaiquanhuozhedaikuanzuoweidiyapin,danqixinyongdengjidengwentizhidejinyibutansuo。

another consequence of the type of liquidity management has been the shortage of collateral, mainly debt instruments. the supply of collateral depends on substantial support from financial institutions. according to data released at the end of january 2017, open market repurchases required 2.05 trillion yuan of collateral, while the mlf required 3.68 trillion yuan of collateral and another 4 trillion yuan was needed for pledge-style repos. this meant a combined 9.73 trillion yuan. at the end of january 2017, the scale of the interest rate debt held by the banks amounted to 15.3 trillion yuan, far surpassing the 9.73 trillion yuan of collateral needed for the open market operations. the collateral scale of interest rate of the quality liquidity assets which the banks need to hold for satisfying the relevant requirement of liquidity cover rate (lcr) should be considered as well. based on the existing examples of the five biggest commercial banks with high lcr ratio, it is calculated that they need at least 8.2 trillion yuan of first-tier assets. it is also calculated that all collateral 11.71 trillion yuan. then it would be 15.39 trillion yuan when 11.71 trillion yuan plus the 3.68 trillion yuan of collateral needed for the long-term capitals of mlf, which would slightly surpass 15.3 trillion yuan of the current market storage of the interest rate debt. the central bank could use the bonds or loans as the collateral for the complement of the interest rate debts, but their credit ratings need to be further discussed.

结论与启示

Conclusion

yishizaiwaihuizhankuandafuxiahuadeqingkuangxia,qunianyilaifanyadianjingguodehuobigongyingquechengxianchuyuguoqujieranbutongdefangshi: yangxingjishaodiaozhengfazhunlv,quedaliangshiyonggezhongchuangxingongju。dansuizhechuangxingongjuguimodejiada,caozuozhongyebaoluchushichangbodongjiaju、liangjiayuqihunluanhediyapinbuzudengbiduan,jixujiandandiyanyongshangshuzuofadekechixuxingzhideshangque,guoduyilaichaoexuzuohuobingfeizuiyoufangan。

泛亚电竞 first, against the backdrop of the sharp decline in foreign exchange purchases, china's money supply has shown a very different pattern from the past with the central bank rarely adjusting the bank reserve ratio, but making extensive use of innovative tools. however, with the increased use of these innovative tools, market volatility has increased. it therefore remains to be seen whether this type of liquidity management – particularly on this scale – is appropriate in the current environment. excessive reliance on these measures is not necessarily the best solution.

ershijinguanjinnianm2zengsumubiao(12%)diyuqunian(13%),qiewaihuizhankuanxiahuayaliyouwangxiangduijianhuan,danjinnianliudongxinggongjudaoqideshuliangjiangbiqunianxianzhuduochu5wanyiyuanzuoyou。juedeliudongxinggongjudaoqijiangchengweijinnianliudongxingquekoudezhongyaolaiyuan,bingshideliudongxingquekouzhengtidayuqunian。youqijinnianxiabannianliudongxingtoufangdedaoqiguimopangda,jieshiliudongxingquekoujiqibuchongdeyalijiangmingxianzengda。

second, this year's 12% m2 growth target is below last year's 13%, and the decline in funds from foreign exchange purchases is expected to ease somewhat. however, maturing liquidity tools this year could top last year's total by 5 trillion yuan. this will be an important contributor to the wider liquidity gap this year. in particular, given the scale of liquidity issuance in the second half of this year, it is expected that the liquidity gap will be significantly higher.

泛亚电竞 sanshizhanwangweilai,ruguofangjiashangzhang、huilvxiadiedeyuqiyousuoqiwen,mianduijuedeliudongxingquekou,huobizhengceruonengfuzhiyixiaofujianjinbingduocilinghuodidiaozhengfadingcunkuanzhunbeijinlv,huoyouliyuqi“wenjianzhongxing”zhengcemubiaodeshixian。chuantongjiaokeshuyijixuduoshichangrenshizongwurenweifadingcunkuanzhunbeijinlvdediaozhengshiyiji“mengyao”。danshishishang,zaikaifangjingjitiaojianxia,fadingcunkuanzhunbeijinlvdediaozhengbuguoshilinghuoyingduiwaihuidaliangliuru/liuchudeyizhongzhongxinghuobizhengcecaozuoeryi。

third, as we look ahead, if the expectations of possible housing price rises and the weakening of the exchange rate can be stabilized, but we still face of a huge liquidity gap, a series of gradual adjustments to the deposit reserve ratio could be conducive to the realization of a “prudent and neutral” monetary policy. many market participants mistakenly see the deposit reserve ratio as a blunt instrument in managing liquidity. but in fact the adjustment of the statutory deposit reserve ratio is merely a neutral monetary policy operation that can be used to respond to large inflows or outflows of foreign exchange in a flexible manner.

 

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