泛亚电竞

【双语】(钟伟圆桌)美中央行的加息与缩表: 虚还是实?

美中央行的加息与缩表: 虚还是实?

Interest Rates and Shrinking the Fed Balance Sheet

 

jinru2017nianyilai,jinrongquanreyidecihuiyouliangge,yigeshijiaxi,lingyigeshisuobiao。errecisuozhixiangdeduixiangzeshimeilianchuhezhongguoyangxing。yuelaiyueduodeyanjiuzheguanzhudao,meilianchucongtuichuliangkuandaojianjinjiaxiyiriyiminglang,tongshi,baokuomeilianchuzhuxiyelunzaineideyixieguanyuanyezaibiaodaduishousuomeilianchuzichanfuzhaiguimodedongji。zhongguojingjizejinglizhewenzhongquhaodejingxiang。zhongxingwenjiandehuobizhengcehejinrongquganggandejianguanzhengcedapei,tuidongleshichanglilvdeshangshenghezichanjiagedediaozheng。renmenyezaichuaicezhongguoyangxingshifoukenenghuituidongsuobiaojincheng。jiaxiyusuobiaoliangdarecibeihoudexuxushishijiujingruhe?

since the beginning of 2017, two issues have attracted great attention in financial circles. one is the pace of increases in us interest rates and the other is how soon the federal reserve will reduce the size of its balance sheet. both are likely to have an impact on china's central bank as well as the fed. the fed has made clear it has shifted from quantitative easing to gradual increases in interest rates. it has also said it wants to unwind the us$4.5 trillion in bonds on its balance sheet, according to statements by fed officials, including chairwoman janet yellen. china's economy is showing stable growth. the sound and neutral monetary policy now in effect, combined with regulatory policies that promote financial deleveraging, set the stage for an increase in market interest rates and an adjustment of asset prices. market players are speculating whether the people's bank of china will push for what would be a chinese version of shrinking the domestic balance sheet. where are us and chinese interest rates headed and will there be balance sheet reductions in either country? these are among the topics in our latest round table discussion.

zhuchiren: zhong  wei boshi,《zhongguowaihui》fuzhubian

泛亚电竞 jia  bin: guanqingyou boshi, minshengzhengquan fuzongcai

泛亚电竞       lincaiyi boshi,guotaijunanshouxijingjixuejia

泛亚电竞 zhong wei, deputy director of china forex, leads the discussion with guan qingyou, vice president of minsheng securities, and lin caiyi, chief economist of guotai junan securities.

zhongwei: meilianchudejiaxiyishixianshi,danheshimeilianchuhuifuzhusuobiao?jinguanzuoweimeiguoliangkuandeshizuoyongzhedebonankerenwei,suobiaobingbukunnan。danshijicaozuozhong,shifouyingdangzhoumizhenzhuomeiguojingjizengzhangdezanshipiruo,zichanjiagedejugaobuxia,yijiguojizibenliudongdebianjudengyinsu。kaolvdaoliangkuankuobiaoshuyubonankedezhengzhiyichan,yijiyelunderenqiwentidenggengduoyinsu,liangweirenweimeilianchuqidongsuobiaoxuyaohezhongshiyitiaojian?youkenenghuiheshizhixingsuobiao?

zhong wei: the us federal reserve has moved to push interest rates higher, but when will it shrink its balance sheet? former fed chief ben bernanke, the initiator of the quantitative easing policy in the united states, insisted that shrinking the balance sheet would not be difficult. however, the fed has found that this is in fact not so easy to do. it needs to carefully consider the strength of us economic growth, high asset prices and changes in international capital flows among other factors. in your opinion, given the quantitative easing and the vast enlargement of the balance sheet under bernanke and his successor janet yellen, what are the right conditions for the fed to reduce the size of the balance sheet? when might this actually take place?

泛亚电竞 guanqingyou: fenximeilianchusuobiaodeshiyitiaojianxuyaoshouxiankaoliangzheiyilunjiaxizhouqidebenzhi。meilianchudezheiyilunjinsuoyuciqian1994nian、2004niandelianglunshibuyiyangde,qianlianglunyoumingxiandejingjiguorejichu,congnaiyongpin、fangdichandengxuqiuzhongkeyikandaomingxianguoredetaishi;dancong2015nianjiaxiluodideqingkuanglaikan,dangshimeiguodabufenzhuyaojingjishujuhaimeiyouhuifudaoguoqushiniandejunzhishuiping。cilunjiaxi,shizhishangshimeilianchuweileyufangweilaifengxianxiadehuobizhengcekujieerjinxingdehuobizhengcehuiguichangtaihua。meiguoyifangmianhenzhuyiquanqiujingjihuanjing,lingyifangmianhenguanzhujinrongshichangdebodong,erruguoweileyufangfengxiandejiaxiquechufalefengxian,zejiubenmodaozhile。zheiyejiukeyilijie,weihecilunjiaxidaoxianzaidouxiangewaigepai。

jiyuzheiyangdeyigebenzhi,kaolvdaosuobiaoxiangjiaojiaxishigengzhijiedezichanchushou,meilianchusuobiaodagailvjiangzailianbangjijinlilvhuidaoshidangshuipinghou,tongshiquanqiujinronghuanjinghemeiguojingjishujuchuzaiyigexiangduiwenhedebeijingxiacaihuikaiqi。zaikaolvdaomuqianmeilianchuguanyuandebiaotai,kaishisuobiaodeshijiandagailvzai2017niandidao2018nianchu。

泛亚电竞 guan qingyou: we need to examine the nature of the most recent round of interest rate hikes if we want to understand the appropriate conditions for the federal reserve to act on its plans to shrink its balance sheet. this round of tightening by the federal reserve is different from the previous rounds in 1994 and 2004. during the first two rounds the economy was showing signs of overheating and that applied to durable goods, real estate and other areas. when the fed raised interest rates in december 2015, major us economic indicators had not recovered to the average levels of the past decade. in this round of interest rate increases the federal reserve is trying to normalize monetary policy. on one hand, the us attaches great importance to the global economic environment. on the other hand, it is concerned about the volatility in financial markets. if an interest rate hike is aimed at preventing risk but instead actually accentuates risk, this is something that should be avoided. it is therefore not surprising at all that the pace of interest rate hikes has been extraordinarily slow.

jiyuzheiyangdeyigebenzhi,kaolvdaosuobiaoxiangjiaojiaxishigengzhijiedezichanchushou,meilianchusuobiaodagailvjiangzailianbangjijinlilvhuidaoshidangshuipinghou,tongshiquanqiujinronghuanjinghemeiguojingjishujuchuzaiyigexiangduiwenhedebeijingxiacaihuikaiqi。zaikaolvdaomuqianmeilianchuguanyuandebiaotai,kaishisuobiaodeshijiandagailvzai2017niandidao2018nianchu。

shrinking the balance sheet is more straightforward as it merely involves the sale of assets. the federal reserve could start the process when the fed funds rate returns to an appropriate level, conditions in the global financial environment are stable and american economic indicators are generally favorable. based on the remarks of former officials of the fed, it is estimated that the federal reserve will shrink the balance sheet by the end of 2017 or at the beginning of 2018.

 

 

lincaiyi: tongjishujuxianshi,meilianchuciqiantongguosanlunlianghuakuansong,qizongzichanyicong2007niande8943yimeiyuankuozhangdao2014niande4.5wanyi。dao2016nian,meilianchudezichanfuzhaibiaoguimorengranyou44515yimeiyuan。qizhong,90%weiguozhaihembs,zongguimodadaojin4wanyimeiyuan。yinci,suizhejingjidewenjianfusu,meilianchubirantongguosuobiaolaizhubuchulirucipangdaguimodeguozhaihembs。congwaibuhuanjinglaikan,suizhetelangpudeshuishouxinzhengzhixing,guojizibenliuxiangmeiguo,chanyejinyibujiju,meiguojingjizhongzhangqideqiangshizengzhangjihumeiyouxuannian。yinci,zairenheshihousuobiaodoubuzhiyushidemeiguojingjifazhanshitouchuxiannizhuan。jinnianxiabanniankaishi,suobiaohenyoukenengjiujinrucaozuojieduan。

lin caiyi: the federal reserve undertook three rounds of quantitative easing, with its assets expanding from us$894.3 billion in 2007 to us$4.5 trillion in 2014. by 2016, the federal reserve's balance sheet was still us$4.45 trillion. some 90% of that total, or about us$4 trillion, was in treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. with the steady recovery of the economy, the federal reserve must gradually undertake large scale sales of treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities as it shrinks its balance sheet. at the same time we could have an implementation of trump's plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending as well as a policy that favors american industry. along with this we could see international capital flowing back to the united states. as a result, we are likely to see solid economic growth over the longer term in the us. a shrinking of the fed's balance sheet under those conditions would not reverse the momentum of the us economy. it is likely that in the second half of this year, the plan to shrink the fed's balance sheet will enter into the operational phase.

泛亚电竞 zhongwei: jinru2017nianyilai,zhongguojinronghuanjingyeyoumingxianbianhua,huobizhengceyihongguanshenshenkuangjiaweijichu,chengwenjianzhongxing;jianguanzhengceyiqugangganweizhudiao,buduanjinxingfengxianpaichaheshifang。renmenjiguanchadaolerenminbililvqushenghehuilvquwen,yeguanchadaolehongguanjingjiduanzhouqideqiangshi,yijiloushi、gushi、zhaishidebodong。yixiejinrongjigoudezichanfuzhaibiaoguimoyichengsuobiaojixiang。yixieyanjiucaice,zhongguoshidesuobiaoyeshizaibixing;lingyixiexuezhezerenwei,suobiaozaizhongguoshangyanzhiguozao,zhongguoyangxingshangbujubeiyichixujiangdicunkuanzhunbeijinlvweibiaozhidesuobiaoshiji。liangweirenwei,zhongguoyangxingshifouyezaigensuimeilianchu,youkenengjinxingjiaxihesuobiaocaozuoma?

泛亚电竞 zhong wei: china's financial environment has changed significantly this year. monetary policy is stable and neutral under a macro-prudential framework and regulatory policy continues to pursue deleveraging as a means of reducing risk. there has been a rise in domestic interest rates and a stabilization of the renminbi exchange rate. at the same time, despite volatility in the property, stock and bond markets, there has been fairly strong economic growth. some financial institutions have managed to shrink the size of their own balance sheets. some scholars suggest that it is time for a chinese-style shrinking of the balance sheet, while others believe it is still too early as the central bank has been reluctant to reduce the reserve ratio on bank deposits. in your opinion, is it possible for the chinese central bank to follow the federal reserve by raising benchmark interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet?

guanqingyou: yangxingzaishixinghuobizhengcedeshihou,shouxianyaokaolvdeyinsujiushiweichijinrongwending,cujinbenguojingjifazhan,dangranyangxingbenshenyedequeyouduozhongmubiaojunhengdewenti,meiguoshizheiyang,zhongguoyishiruci。

泛亚电竞 guan qingyou: as the central bank implements monetary policy, the first factor to be considered is maintaining financial stability and promoting national economic development. the central bank has to strike a balance with its multiple objectives. this is true in the united states and china as well.

 

泛亚电竞 zhongguoyangxing2017niandezhengcejidiaoshiweichijinrongwending、buchuxianzhongdajinrongfengxian,quganggandetongshijiyazichanpaomo,qishishiweilejinronggenghaodefanyadianjingshitijingji,jixuxiangshi。zheijiujuedinglezaiweichijinrongwending、jingjifazhandedaqiantixia,yangxingjianghuiweichihuobizhengceyigejinpinghengheqiangjianguandetaishi。jutieryan,jiushishiyongduanqiliudongxingdiaojiegongju(slo)、duanqijiedaibianli(slf)dengduanqiliudongxingdiaojiegongju,tongguojingzhundiaokonglaiweichishichangwending,dadaoweijiaxidexiaoguo,danmuqianlaikanshangbucunzaitishengjizhunlilvshijiaxidebiyaohequshi。

the chinese central bank’s key policy in 2017 is to maintain financial stability while squeezing out asset bubbles and achieving an overall deleveraging. this will make the financial system serve the real economy in a more practical manner. it also means that the central bank will maintain a relatively tight monetary policy and a strict regulatory stance. specifically, short-term liquidity adjustment tools, such as the short-term liquidity operations (slos) and the standing lending facilities (slfs), will be used to maintain market stability. these are more targeted tools that can be used to achieve the same goals as small increases in interest rates. however, there is no need for increases in benchmark interest rates at this time.

 

 

zheiyilunjinrongzhouqidejinsuoyuquganggandefanglve,bingfeichuantongyiyishangdesuobiao,keyishuo,zhongmeisuobiaobingfeitongyigeyiyi。meiguodesuobiaoshiyangxingjichuhuobishidesuobiao,zhuyaotixianzaiyangxingzichanfuzhaibiaodesuojian;erzaifanyadianjingguoqiangjianguandetaishixiadesuobiaoshishangyeyinxingzhengtixinyongshidesuobiao,zhuyaotixianzaishangyeyinxingjifeiyinjinrongjigouneibuxinyongxunhuanpaishengdesuojian,hejinrongzifanyadianjingfanrongheguodujiaganggandesuojian。the strategy of tightening monetary policy and achieving a general deleveraging throughout the economy is not the equivalent of shrinking the central bank balance sheet as proposed in the us. in china, it would be an effort to reduce leveraging by shrinking the lending activities of commercial banks and the use of financial derivative products by the banks and the non-bank financial sector.

 

泛亚电竞 lincaiyi: cong2017nianyilaideyangxinghuobizhengcequxianghegongkaishichangcaozuolaikan,zhongguoyangxingbeidongsuobiaodekenengxingxiangduijiaoda。jizaizichanxiangxiadewaihuizichanquyujianshao,tongshifuzhaixiangxiadezhengfucunkuanquyujianshao。shouxian,suizheguoquliangnianwaihuichubeidexiaxing,yangxingshizhongmeiyoushishijiangzhun,zhishitongguonihuigou、zhongqijiedaibianli(mlf)、duanqijiedaibianli(slf)denglinghuoxinghuobizhengcegongjulaidiaojieliudongxing,shijishangshizaiweisuobiaochuangzaojishujichu。qici,jijicaizhengzhengcexiadezhengfucaizhengchizikuoda,zaiyangxingdezhengfucunkuanziqunian10yueyilaijiuzhujianjianshao,cong3.76wanyijiangzhijinnian4yuefende2.87wanyi,jinhouzheigequshijiangdagailvchixu。yishangliangxiang,fenbiecongzichanhefuzhailiangduandaozhizichanfuzhaibiaodebeidongsuojian。lin caiyi: based on what we have seen this year in terms of the central bank's monetary policy and its open market operations, it is highly likely that the people's bank of china will need to make a passive shrinking of the balance sheet. that is, foreign exchange assets decrease and government deposits – or liabilities – also decrease. with the decline in foreign exchange reserves over the past two years, the central bank has not yet been able to make changes in benchmark interest rates. instead, it has adjusted liquidity through reverse repurchase agreements on the money market as well as the use of the medium-term lending facility (mlf), the short-term lending facility (slf) and other flexible monetary policy tools. this actually has set the technical foundation for shrinking the balance sheet. the government fiscal deficit is expanding under a proactive fiscal policy. governmental deposits in the banking system have gradually declined, falling from 3.76 trillion yuan in october of last year to 2.87 trillion yuan in april of this year. this downward trend will continue. the above two items result in a passive shrinking of the balance sheet from both the asset and the liability sides.

 

ciwai,zaiyinxingdengjinrongjigoudelicaizijinweiwaixianzhihezichanguanlizijinchiyewuxianzhidenggexiangjianguanzhengchangshoujindehuanjingxia,zichanfuzhaiguimoshousuozaisuonanmian,zheiyoukeguanshangdaozhiyinxingjifeiyinjinrongjigouzaiyangxingcunkuandejianshao。congfuzhaiduancushiyangxingbeidongsuobiao。conghuobizhengcedejidiaolaikan,zhongguoyangxingbeidongsuobiaodekenengxingdaoshibijiaoda。zhiyushifoujiaxi,huogengduoqujueyucpishangzhangdefudujimeilianchujiaxidejiezou。

in addition, shrinking the balance sheet is inevitable as china moves ahead with all sorts of regulatory tightening, such as putting limits on some wealth management operations and restricting cash pooling by the asset management arms of financial institutions. this results in reduced deposits at banks and non-bank financial institutions. thus the liability side forces the central bank to shrink the balance sheet. in terms of the basic tone of monetary policy, it is also possible for the central bank to shrink the balance sheet in a passive fashion. meanwhile, interest rate hikes will depend on the extent of the rise in the consumer price index and the frequency of interest rate increases by the federal reserve.

 

zhongwei: renmenpubianguanxinsuobiaoyujingjizengzhang,suobiaoyuzichanjiagebodongzhijiandexianghuguanxi。2017nian1jidu,meiguojingjizengzhangpiruo,gushibuduanchuanglishixingao。yucixingchengxianmingduibideshi,tongqizhongguojingjizengzhangxiangdangwenjian,tongshiguzhaiheloushijunxianrudiaozheng。zailiangweikanlai,ruruomeizhongjunburujiaxihesuobiao,youkenengduijingjizengzhang、zichanjiagenaizhiquanqiujingjigejudailaizenyangdechongji?

zhong wei: market players generally pay close attention to the relation between shrinking the balance sheet and economic growth as well as fluctuations in asset prices. in the first quarter of 2017, us economic growth was weak and the stock market continued to reach record highs. in sharp contrast, china's economic growth during the same period remained quite stable, with the stock and the property markets stuck in an adjustment phase. in your opinion, if the united states manages to raise interest rates and shrink the central bank balance sheet, what impact would that have on economic growth, asset prices and even the global economy?

泛亚电竞 guanqingyou: muqianduiyuzhongmeitongbujinrusuobiaodebiaoshushangbuzhunque,jinrongzhouqideshousuozhongdiezegengweizhunque。meiguogengzaoyibuzai2015nianjinruleshizhixingjiaxi,zhongguoyezaiqunianniandikaishijinrulewenjianzhongxingdehuobizhengce,zheiqizhongyouzhudongyeyouwunai。zaimeiguojiaxijinsuo+zhongguoqiangjianguandejinpinghengzheiyangdeyigedapeixia,zaijiashangjinnianniandiouzhouyeyoukenengsuojianqe,shidedangqiangengxiangshiyigequanqiuhuobichaoshuituichaodeguocheng。neime,guoquzailiudongxinglangchaozhongxiangshoulihaodezichankenenghuichuxianbutongdezouxiang。

guan qingyou: at present, it is not clear whether china and the united states will be able to shrink their balance sheets at the same time, but it is clear that there is some overlap in their cyclical financial contraction. the united states made one interest rate hike in 2015. china moved to what it calls a stable and neutral monetary policy at the end of last year. with the combination of higher us interest rates, china's move to a tighter regulatory stance and a possible shrinking of quantitative easing in europe by the end of this year, what we observe is an outflow of currency. assets that previously benefited from increased liquidity in the past will now see a considerable change.

duiyuzhongguoeryan,duanqihezhangqishoudaodeyingxiangkenengshibuyiyangde。duanqilaikan,quanqiujinrongshichangchuyuyigeduimeilianchujiaxihesuobiaozhiqiandeqingxuzhenkongqi。yifangmian,meilianchujiaxideyuqibijiaobaoman,niandiyinhandelilvjiaxicishuheshizhijiaxicishuzhijiandekongjianhenxiao;lingyifangmian,meilianchusuobiaozuikuaiyeyaozai2017nianniandizhengshijinrutaolun,luodidagailvzai2018niannianchu。yinci,duanqinei,zhongguoguoneizichanjiagegengduoqujueyuguoneidehuobizhengcehejianguanzhengce,waiweidechezhoubingbumingxian。zhongmeizhangduanlilvxichamuqianjuyoujiaogaodehuanchongdian。zhangqilaikan,yingxiangdegenbenhaishizaiyuzhongmeixiangduijingjizhouqi、huobizhouqideweizhi。fanyadianjingxianzaiyijingkandaoleguoneichuqingdejuexinheyili,zheishifangdichanzhouqi、kucunzhouqi、jinrongzhouqizhongdiejinsuodeyigexianzhuang,guanjianzaiyuchuqingdeliduhejieguoruhe。

泛亚电竞 for china, the short and long-term impacts may be somewhat different. before the federal reserve pushes interest rates higher and shrinks its balance sheet, the markets are basically in limbo. there is room for us interest rate hikes but the fed will not start shrinking the balance sheet until the end of this year or early 2018. in the short term, china’s domestic asset prices will depend more on domestic monetary and regulatory policies, while external issues appear less significant.

duiyumeiguojiquanqiujinrongshichangeryan,keyicankaoribenheouzhoudesuobiaojingyan。ribendezhudongsuobiaoduigushizhaishihejingjidoudailaifumianyingxiang,ouzhoudebeidongsuobiaozeduishichanghejingjiyingxiangbuda。jiehemuqianmeilianchumianlindejingjixingshi,beidongsuobiaobizhudongsuobiaogengjiajianjie,fengxianyexiangduigengxiao,yinci,yujimeilianchuhuicaiyongbeidongsuobiaodefangshi。beidongsuobiaoduimeiguojingjizengzhanghezichanjiagedeyingxiangzaiduanqineijuyoumaichongxing,danzhangqiyingxiangxiangduiwenhe。

for the united states and the global financial markets, there is much to be learned from the experience of japan and europe in shrinking the balance sheet. japan’s efforts had a negative impact on the stock market and the economy, while in europe there was only a limited impact. given the economic situation facing the federal reserve, a passive shrinking of the balance sheet, or not reinvesting once securities mature, is a simpler way to go with much less risk. it is likely that the federal reserve will take the passive route, which will mean some short term impact on us asset prices and economic growth, but only a mild effect over the longer term.

 

 

lincaiyi: shijishang,yangxingsuobiaobingbudaibiaohuobizhengcejinsuo。biqisuobiao、kuobiao,zaiyangxinghuobizhengceyindaoxia,shichanglilvzhongshudeyidongduijingjizengzhangjizichanjiagebodongdeyingxianggengweizhijie。yinci,fanyadianjinggerenrenwei,jiaxiduiyujingjizengzhanghezichanjiagedeshangzhangjuyouyidingdeyizhixiaoying,tongshiduixiyinwailaizibenyouyidingdejijizuoyong,ersuobiaobuyidingyoumingquedeyingxiang。

泛亚电竞 lin caiyi: in fact, a shrinking of the central bank balance sheet does not mean monetary tightening. compared to shrinking or enlarging the balance sheet, under the guidance of the central bank's monetary policy, the movement of market interest rates has a more direct impact on economic growth and asset prices. raising interest rates has a certain inhibitory effect on economic growth and asset prices, but it also has a positive role in attracting foreign capital. shrinking the balance sheet does not necessarily have a clear impact on growth.

 

zhongwei: jinrongjiyaowen,yeyaohuo。zaiguoqusinian,zhongguojinrongyejinglileqianhuang、guzai、rongduan、wangdaipaomodengyixiliejinrongshijiandechongji。zaiweilaishunian,zhongguohuobizhengcehejianguanzhengceruhexiediao,cainengzaiwenzengzhanghekongfengxianzhijianzhaodaoqiadangdepinghengdian?zaijinnianxiabannian,huobijijianguanzhengceyijinxingzenyangdeweidiao,cainengrangjinronggenghaofanyadianjingyushiti,wenzhongjianhuo,erbushiwenzhongyouxian?

zhong wei: the finance sector needs stability but it also must show vitality. in the past four years, china's financial industry has suffered a series of financial setbacks, such as credit shortages, a stock market crash, and internet lending bubbles and so on. over the next few years, how can china's monetary and regulatory policies be coordinated to strike the right balance between steady growth and risk control? in the second half of this year, how can monetary and regulatory policies be fine-tuned so that they better serve the underlying economy? how can authorities ensure the economy posts steady growth without excessive risk?

 

泛亚电竞 guanqingyou: huiguguoqujinian,jinrongziyouhuayidafufazhan。“yixingsanhui”moshiduiyingdeshifenyejingying。liruxianzaibaoxianzijinyekeyirushile,neime,zheibufenjiaochalingyugaiguisheilaijianguan,baojianhuihaishizhengjianhui?gongxing、jianxinghejiaoxingdoushelilejijingongsi,zheixiegongsiyougaiyouyinjianhuiguanhaishizhengjianhuilaijianguan?xiangzheizhongyewujiexianmohudelingyuqishihenduo,erqiesuizheshichangzhunrudefangkuan,zheizhonglingyujiangyuelaiyueduo。xianyoude“yixingsanhui”jianguanjiagoujiyoujianguanzhongdiegengyoujianguanzhenkong,yecunzaijianguanbiaozhunbutongyi、yankuanchidubutongyi、xinxibuchuantoudenghenduowenti。2015niangupiaoshichangyichangbodonghou,zhengfuduizhenggejinrongjianguandediaozhengbingmeiyoushishidaowei。muqian,“hongguanshenshenjianguan+jigoujianguan+zhinengjianguan”dejinrongjianguansilushiqingxide,danzheizhongjianguantixishangweixingcheng,yizhiyuzaiqianghuajinrongjianguanshizhizhuyidaolebumenxiediaodewenti,jianguanshiyiqifali,daozhiduizhenggeshichangdeyingxiangzhouranjiada。

guan qingyou: looking back over the past few years, financial liberalization has made significant strides. the division of regulatory chores among the people's bank of china, the china banking regulatory commission, the china securities regulatory commission and the china insurance regulatory commission has been made to reflect largely separate spheres of business. but if insurance funds are channeled to other parts of the financial market, which authority is responsible for regulation? if a big commercial bank runs a fund management company, which authority is responsible for supervising that operation? as market access improves, there will be more areas of blurred regulatory responsibility. the current regulatory framework has created a number of overlapping areas with unclear regulatory standards, different rules, inadequate transparency and other issues. since the abnormal stock market fluctuations of 2015, the government has been adjusting its financial regulatory environment but more work needs to be done. the present regulatory pattern is targeted at a combination of macro-prudential supervision, institutional supervision and functional supervision. these still need to be refined.

 

zhanwanghouxudehuobizhengce,fanyadianjingrenwei,jianyudangqianjuececengduiyujingjideyunxingxiaxianrennaidutisheng,danduiyujinrongpaomoyujingjiwanjiderennaidujiangdi,yinci,zhiyaobushiweijixitongxingwenjiandechengdu,jingjixiaxingnanyizaibipohuobizhengcezhuanxiang。zhishao“liangjiashuangsong”delaolubuhuizaizou,fanyadianjinghuoxuhuikandao“jiajinliangsong”dejumian。yifangmian,“liangsong”jiubaozhengleliudongxingweijishibuhuichuxiande,fengxiandixiankeyishouzhu;lingyifangmian,“jiajin”yejiushixuyaoliudongxingdejigoukehuodedezijinjiagebixudaiyouyidingdechengfaxingzhi,keyibaozhengqugangganyujizichanpaomodechengguokeyishouzhu。

 

looking to future monetary policy, i think there is greater tolerance at the decision-making level towards the downward growth trend of the economy and reduced tolerance of financial bubbles. the downward economic growth trend will not force a change in monetary policy as long as the soundness of the financial system is not affected.

lincaiyi: huobizhengcehejianguanzhengcezaizhouqishangzuihaonengshixianyidingchengdude“duichong”guanxi。liru,jianguanjigouquxiaozichanguanlijigouzijinchiyewu,yijiduiyinxinglicaizijinweiwaiguanlizuochuyangexianzhi,qichuzhongdoushiweilekongzhijinrongjigoudexitongfengxian,danshiruguozaizhixingjianguancuoshideguochengzhongdiejialiudongxingshousuo,neimegupiao、zhaiquandeerjishichangdouhuimianlinyanzhongshixue,yinfabengkuishixiadiefengxian。yinci,qingliweiguizijin,bishitamentuichuerjishichangshi,huobizhengceyikuansong,shideshichangzijinhuanjingduanqineixiangduipingheng;erzichanjiageshangzhangshi,huobizhengceyishidangshoujin,yibimianzichanpaomodexingchenghuozhekuoda。

lin caiyi: monetary and regulatory policies are best when they “offset each other” to a certain degree. for example, regulators could abolish the cash pooling business of asset management companies while imposing strict curbs on the “outsourcing” of management of bank wealth management operations. the original intention of policy makers was to control the systemic risks of financial institutions. however, if there is a contraction of liquidity as other regulatory measures are rolled out, the stock and bond markets could face severe shocks. that would risk a much more dramatic downturn. therefore, while forcing funds out of the secondary markets there is a need for a more relaxed monetary policy.

zhongwei: kanqilaidangxiashicidaiweijihou,zhuyaojingjitidejingjizengzhanghezhangqiliudongxingchuyuhuiguichangtaihuajunzhidehuanmanguocheng,suobiaobingbujinpodanshibeidongshisuobiaodegailvyoucun,ruguochulidedang,jiaxihesuobiaodechongjishijianjinkekongde。duizhongguoeryan,duiguogaozengzhanglvqiwangzhidexiajiangheduijinrongpaomorongrendudejiangdi,daozhihuobizhengcehejianguanzhengcepiansongdehuanjingbufucunzai。jinrongwenzhongqiuhuo,jinzhongqiushidequshizhujianminglanghua。

zhong wei: since the disruptions of the subprime mortgage crisis, the major economies have seen a gradual return to normal growth and more adequate long-term liquidity. while there are no signs of an imminent shrinking of the fed's balance sheet, there could be a passive reduction. the impact of a smaller balance sheet and higher interest rates can be relatively limited if attained in a controlled and gradual manner. for china, the reduced expectations for economic growth and a diminished tolerance for financial bubbles should ensure that there is no overly loose monetary or regulatory policy environment. with a stable financial sector, and the prospect of concrete results from a tighter environment is becoming clearer.

泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞app怎么下载-官网APP下载1

AG真人国际厅和旗舰厅 雨燕体育_雨燕体育直播_雨燕直播足球 纬来体育台在线直播_纬来体育nba在线直播看球宝 中国体彩网app_中国体彩官方app下载安卓 c位体育app AG真人_平台首页 yobo体育下载-首页 AG真人国际厅 - 官网首页 500电竞网址 AG真人国际厅 - 官网首页 天天娱乐网