泛亚电竞

【双语】汇率博弈

发布:泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞app怎么下载-官网APP下载 2016-11-03 14:46 来源:泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞app怎么下载-官网APP下载 《CHINA FOREX》2017年第3期 作者:穆志谦

huilv,dingyiweibutonghuobizhijiandebijia,renmenwangwangguanzhudeshidianshihuilvboyi。danzongshenyanjiujiufaxian,boyidejiegouyouzhefengfudeneirong。shijiaobutong,boyituidaochudejieguoyebutong。

泛亚电竞 an exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another. how it is determined is the exchange rate game, and there are numerous aspects to this contest of chance, willpower and economic clout. different factors produce different outcomes. different vantage points produce different conclusions.

yirenminbiweili,sheiyusheiboyi?

if we take the renminbi, for example, what does the game consist of and who are the key players?

renminbishengzhiyubianzhizhijiandeboyi。duizichancunliangeryan,shengzhiyouliyuzhaiquanren,bianzhizezhaiwurenshouyi,fanzhiyiran。duiguojimaoyieryan,shengzhifuzhichukou,bianzhiyizhijinkou,fanzhiyiran。congguojishouzhipinghengjiaodu,congjingjiyunxingpingwenchufa,zefuzadeduo,haibunengjiandanpandingrenminbishengzhijiuhao,huorenminbibianzhijiuyidingbuhao。

firstly, there is the contest over renminbi appreciation and depreciation. appreciation favors creditors while depreciation favors borrowers. in international trade, appreciation boosts imports and curbs exports, while depreciation curbs imports and spurs exports. we should not make a simple value judgment about the value of the currency without considering a wide range of factors such as the effects on importers and exporters, the impact on the balance of payments and the effects on the economy overall.

renminbiyumeiyuanzhijiandeboyi。meizhongshuyushijiediyi、erliangdajingjiti,liangzhonghuobidebijia,tixiandeshiliangguogoumailishuipingdechayi。youqudeshi,zhongmeiliangguojingjizhouqibutongbu,chengxiancixiaobizhanghuocizhangbixiaodejingjiyunxingjingqizhuangkuang,congshijianweiduqupingjia,hennansiweiguhua,nazhonghuobishengbianzhidelibi。

泛亚电竞 secondly, there is the contest of the renminbi and the us dollar. the united states and china are the world’s largest and second largest economies, and the exchange rate between the two currencies is an indicator of purchasing power. interestingly, the two economies have economic cycles that do not coincide, and domestic economic conditions are hardly the same. judging the advantages and disadvantages of appreciation versus depreciation is a complex calculation.

泛亚电竞 lianshichangcnhyuzaianshichangcnydeboyi。lianggeshichangfanyingbutongquyufanweidegongqiuguanxi,shoubutongdejianguanzhutiguanli,benlaishiyougeliqiangde,danjiutongyizhonghuobibiaode,suiranjiagehuweibuyinguo,danzonghuihuweiyingxiang。

泛亚电竞 thirdly, there is a contest between the offshore market (where the renminbi is commonly known as cnh) and the onshore market (where it is called cny). the two markets are under different supervisory authorities and reflect a different supply and demand dynamic but share the same exchange reference, namely the us dollar. although prices on these two markets do not share a cause-and-effect relationship, they exert mutual influence on each other.

泛亚电竞 jiqihuilvyuyuanqihuilvdeboyi。yuqifanyingbingfaxianjiage。jiqijuedingbingshiyuanqidejichu,eryuanqiyindaojiqidezouxiang。liangzhedeboyikaoyantouzizhutidedanheshi、polihezhihui。

泛亚电竞 lastly, there is a game of the spot and forward exchange rates. market expectations help discover prices. while the spot rate is a determining factor and the basis for the forward exchange rate, the forward rate leads the spot rate trend. the game between the two is also a test of investors’ courage, insight and wisdom.

泛亚电竞 renminbihuilvshengchengjizhishiyoushoupanjia(qianyiri)、yilanzihuobibianhuahenizhouqiyinzisanyaosuzuhe,jifanyingjingneishichanggongqiuguanxi,youcankaoguojishangduozhonghuobibodong,haijinxingyuqiguanli。sanzhechufadiangeyi,xianghuzhijianyecunzaiboyi,boyideshiquanzhong,shisheizhudao。

the renminbi exchange rate mechanism, which determines the daily parity rate or fix, combines three elements, namely the previous day's closing price, variations within a basket of currencies and counter-cyclical factors. the mechanism reflects the interaction of supply and demand, the fluctuations of foreign currencies as well as the management of expectations. the three elements all have a role, but the weighting of each can determine the outcome.

zongzhi,boyijiyouneishengde,youyouwaishengde,jiyoushijianweidude,youyoukongjianfanweide,dengdeng。zhongguoyoujuguhua,yourenxilaiyourenyou,xiyoucanban,yinreneryi。

the exchange rate game involves internal and external factors. it has dimensions of time and space, and no sweeping judgments can be applied to the outcome. as an old chinese goes: some people laugh while others cry. the viewpoint depends on the individual.

作者系《中国外汇》编委会委员
泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞app怎么下载-官网APP下载1

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