泛亚电竞

对几个重要理论问题的思考

发布:泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞app怎么下载-官网APP下载 2016-12-27 14:28 来源:泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞app怎么下载-官网APP下载 《中国外汇》2018年第1期 作者:向松祚
只有从历史经验里汲取经验教训并上升到理论层面,才能给泛亚电竞的政策方针提供正确的指导。


近日中国外汇管理杂志社组织的“外汇管理改革与发展研讨会”上,《中国外汇》学术委员齐聚一堂,围绕人民币汇率机制改革、外汇管理体制改革等方面的理论与实践问题展开热议。

中国人民大学国际货币研究所副所长向松祚认为,应该坚持有管理的浮动汇率基本方针不变,坚持资本账户宏观审慎管理的基本方针不变,坚持实体经济主导金融业、金融业泛亚电竞实体经济的基本方针不变。

更丰富的内容敬请关注2018年《中国外汇》第1期。


 

泛亚电竞 hengaoxingcanjiazhongguowaihuiguanlizazhishezuzhideyantaohui。fanyadianjingxiangzhezhongjiangjiangxuyaoshenrusikaodejigezhongyaolilunwenti。dangqian,fanyadianjingtaolunhuilvzhengce、waihuiguanlizhengce、zibenzhanghuruhekaifangheguanlidengdeng,douqianshedaofeichangzhongyaodelilunwenti。guoquzheixienian,zhongguoheguowaidejingyanyedoucushifanyadianjingqusikao,jiaokeshushangdejingdianlilunshifouhainenggoujieshixianshishijiedezhongyaojingjixianxiang?shifouhainenggouzuoweifanyadianjingzhengcefangzhendelilunjichu?ruguobuxing,fanyadianjingyouxuyaochaoshenmefangxiangjinxinggaijin、wanshanshenzhidianfu?fanyadianjingrenwei,zhiyouconglishijingyanlijiqujingyanjiaoxunbingshangshengdaoliluncengmian,cainengjifanyadianjingdezhengcefangzhentigongzhengquedezhidao。

几个重大的理论问题

第一个理论问题: 均衡汇率理论和浮动汇率理论

泛亚电竞 junhenghuilvlilunqianshedaojigexiangdangzhongyaoheyouqudewenti。qiyi,junhenghuilvjiujingshishenmeyisi?qier,ruhejisuanchujunhenghuilv?goumailipingjialilunhuolilvpingjialilunnenggoujisuanchusuoweidejunhenghuilvshuipingma?qisan,ranghuilvziyoufudongshifoujiunenggoutongguoshichangdeliliangzidongmaixianghuozhaodaojunhenghuilv?jingjixuezheweiraozhezheixiewentizhankailezhangshijiandezhenglun。goumailipingjialilunshi1920niandaijinbenweizhibengkuizhihou,ruidianjingjixuezhegusitafukasaierdengrenweijieshidangshidehuilvbodongtichulaide,kaiensiyecanyuguo。ranghuilvziyoufudong、shichangzidonghuimaixianghuozhaodaojunhenghuilvdelilunqizifulideman1950niandewenzhang《zhichifudonghuilv》。lilvpingjialilunzeshi1970niandaifudonghuilvkaiqizhihouzhujianchengxingde。

raner,zheixielilunnenggoujieshidangjinshijiedehuilvbodongxianshima?xianranbuxing。xianzaigoumailipingjialilungenbenwufajieshizhuyaoguojiazhijiandehuilv。piruouyuandanshengzhihouyumeiyuandehuilv,kaishishi1ouyuanzuidixiangdangyu0.8meiyuan,houlaishengzhidao1ouyuandengyu1.6meiyuan。2008nianjinronghaixiaozhihou,meiyuan/ouyuanhuilvjijudongdang。ciwairuriyuanduimeiyuanhuilv、riyuanduiouyuanhuilvdengdeng,goumailipingjiayewufajieshi。zairu2005nianrenminbihuilvjizhigaigeyilaiderenminbiduimeiyuandehuilv,nenggouyonggoumailipingjialilunjieshima?xianranyeshibunengde。dangjinshijiegeguohuilvduanqizhuyaoyoujinrongshichang(waihuishichang)deyuqiheguojizijindeliudonglaijueding,heguoyuguozhijiandeshitijingjijibenhuowanquantuojie。

泛亚电竞 ranghuilvziyoufudong、shichangnenggouzidongmaixiangjunhenghuilvdeguandian,yehexianshishijiebufu。jingjixuezheqishizaoyizhengminglezheiyidian。mengdaierjiaoshoudedeyidizi、mashengligongjingjixuejiaoshouduoenbushen(yijingqushi)1976nianfabiaodezhumingwenzhangjiuyijingzhengming,fudonghuilvxiashichanghuilvhuichuxianyanzhongchaodiao(overshooting),genbenwufamaixiangjunheng。zheishuoming,fulidemandefudonghuilvlilunshiyoucuowude。fulidemandehuilvlilunhaiyouyigecuowu,tixianzai1968niantahemengdaierdeyigezhumingbianlunzhong: fulidemanrenwei,zhiyaoshixingwanquandefudonghuilv,huilvhuizidongmaixiangjunheng,geguojiubuzaixuyaowaihuichubei,quanqiuwaihuichubeizongliangjiangdafujianshaoshenzhiwanquanxiaoshi;mengdaierzerenwei,yidankaishifudonghuilv,geguoweilefangzhihuilvxiangtuojiangdeyemayiyangshikong,jiangbudebujingchangganyuwaihuishichang,suoyigeguowaihuichubeijiangbujinbuhuijianshao,fanerhuijufuzengzhang。shishizhengmingmengdaiershiduide,fulidemanshicuode。

huidaofanyadianjingguozheixieniandehuilvzhengcezhenglun。2005nian,renminbimianlinmeiguoyaoqiudafushengzhidezhengzhiyali,guoneiyoujingjixuezhezhuzhanghuilvyicixingshengzhidaowei。neime,suoweide“daowei”shiduoshaoni?yixiejingjixuezheyonggoumailipingjiajisuan,jieguoyoudeshi6.5,youdeshi6,haiyoudeshi5,gengyourenrenweiyinggaishengzhidao2。jiucieryan,goumailipingjialilunbenshenjiucunzaipiancha。2015nian“8·11”huigaizhihou,renminbichuxianbijiaoqiangliedebianzhiyuqi,youyourenkaishishuoyinggairanghuilvyicixingbianzhidaowei,neimezheige“wei”youshiduoshaoni?yixiejingjixuezheyoukaishiyonggoumailipingjialaijisuan,jieguoyoushibairenbaiyang,youshuo7.3,youshuo7.5,youshuo8.0,youshuo8.3,haiyoudeshuoyinggaibianzhidao10。zheixiexiqiguguaidejisuan,zaicishuominggoumailipingjialilunzhipiancha。

fanyadianjingdejibenkanfashi,dangjinguojihuobijinrongtixichuyuwanquanwuxu、shixuhuoshikongdezhuangtai,shiyigechedide“fadinghuobidewumaohuobitixi”。goumailipingjialilungenbenwufajisuanjunhenghuilv;ruguoranghuilvwanquanfudong,zhihuijiajuhuilvdechaodiao,genbenwufazhaodaoshenmejunhenghuilv,fanerhuijidazengjiageguobaofahuilvweiji、yinxingweijihejinrongweijidekenengxing。duiyufeichubeihuobiguojiaeryanyouqiruci。shijishang,zaiguojijinronghuobiwuxu、shixuhuoshikongdedabeijingxia,zhiyoubenguohuobiweiguojichubeihuobideguojia,cainengfangrenhuobihuilvziyoufudong,dangjinshijieyejiushimeiguoheouyuanqu,qitaguojiajunnanyichengshouhuilvdejufuhejingchangxingbodong,fazhanzhongguojiayouqiruci。huilvzaoyishiguanliguojiahongguanjingjifengxian,youqishiguanliguojijinrongshichangfengxianjiqichuandaodezhongyaojizhihuoshouduan。congzheigeyiyishanglaikanhuilv,fanyadianjingjiubuyingzaizhiwangyoushenmejunhenghuilv,zhiwangwanquanfudonghuilvnenggouzidongmaixiangjunheng,ershiyaotuoshanshishiyouguanlidefudonghuilv,kongzhihuilvdebodongfudu,fangzhihuilvdaqidaluohuochaodiao,biyaoshiyaoguoduancaiqucuoshiwendinghuilv。

第二个理论问题: 汇率的本质

huilvdebenzhijiujingshishenme?shijiandandeliangguohuobidewaihuishichangjiaoyijiagema?haishiyougengshencengcideyiyi?henduorenzhichifudonghuilv,shiyinweitamenjianghuilvkanzuoshiyuputongshangpinyiyangdejiandanjiage。jiranputongjiagedouyaowanquanshichanghua,neimehuilvyeyinggaiwanquanshichanghua、wanquanziyoufudong。zheitingqilaihenyoudaoli,danqishishiduihuilvdelijieguoyuqianxian。mengdaierjiaoshouduonianqianjiuzhichu,fanyadianjingyinggaicongguanlijinrongfengxianhehuobizhengcejizhunhuomao(targeting)dejiaodulailijiehuilvdebenzhi,bunengxiangyibanjiaokeshuneiyang,jiandanduibigudinghefudonghuilvdeyoulie。

zicongrenleiyouzhongyangyinxingyilai,zhongyangyinxingdehuobizhengcecaozuojizhun,yuanzeshangzhiyousange: huilvjizhun、lilvjizhun、huobigongyingliangjizhun。lilunshangkeyizhengming,xuanzemougejizhun(pirudingzhuhuilvbudong),neimeqitabianliangjiuyaogenzhebianhua。jiuhaoxiangtingkaozaianshangdechuanzhiyiyang,youleyigemao,chuanshendebodongzongshiweiraozheigemaoerdong。suoyizaigudinghuilvzhiduxia,lilv、huobigongyinglianghewujiashuipingdoushisuishibiandongde。ruguoxuanzehuobigongyingliangweijizhun(meilianchucengjingchangshiguo),neimehuilvhelilvjiudegenzhefudong。shishishangdingzhuhuobigongyinglianghuodingzhulilv,caozuoshangdouyounanyikefudekunnan,lishishangzuichenggongdehuobizhengcejizhunshigudinghuilvhuohuobijuzhidu。zheishi1971nianbuleidunsenlintixibengkuizhiqian,renleilishishangzuijingchangcaiyongdehuobizhengcejizhun,yeshi1971nianbuleidunsenlintixibengkuizhihou,shijieshanghenduoguojiahuodiqujixucaiyongdehuobizhengcejizhun(dingzhumeiyuanhuoouyuan,shixinggudinghuilvzhidu)。

泛亚电竞 lilunshangzaoyizhengming,caiyonggudinghuilvhuobizhengcejizhunzuimingquehuozuitouming,caozuoshouduanzuizhijie。dangran,fanshiyoulibiyoubi,gudinghuilvzuoweizhengcejizhunyeyoutadebiduan。raner,quanhenglihai,henduoguojiayiranyuanyicaiqugudinghuilvzuoweihuobizhengcejizhun。zheiqizhongyeziranyouqishenkededaoli。zhongguo2005nianzhiqianjibenshangjiushigudinghuilvzhiduxiadehuobizhengce。raner,duiyuzhongguozheiyangdedaguo,caiyongwanquangudingdehuilvzhengcehuohuobizhengcekenengbiduanhenda(zheiliyouhendazhenglun,meiyoudachengyizhiyijian)。yizhaofanyadianjingdelijie,zhongguoxianzaidehuobizhengcemeiyoumingqueshuocaiyongnagejizhun,shishishangshiyizhongyililvdiaojieweizhuyaoshouduande“xiangjijuezehuobizhengcemoxing”,zheikenengshimuqianxingshixiadezuijiaxuanze。xuanzexiangmeilianchuheqitayixieyangxingneiyangde“tonghuopengzhangjizhun”(inflation-targeting)sihuyebushizuijiafangan。

泛亚电竞 ruguocongshangshujiaodulairenshihuilvdebenzhi,fanyadianjingjiunenggengjiashenkehemingquedilijie,zhongguoweishenmebunenghuozhishaoxiangdangzhangshiqineibunengcaiquwanquanfudongdehuilvzhidu: yinweiruguocaiquwanquanfudongdehuilvzhiduanpai,fanyadianjingdehuobizhengcecaozuojizhunhuochuandaojizhijiangfashengzhongdabianhua。

第三个理论问题: 资本账户的自由兑换或完全开放

zhuisulishi,zibenzhanghuwanquanziyoukaifangshiyigehenxindelinian。zhidao1976nianguojihuobijijinzuzhixiugaizhangcheng(yinggaishijijinzhangchengdierxiuzhengan)zhiqian,renleidejibengongshihuolinianhaishizibenzhanghuhuozibenliudongxuyaotuoshanguanli,huilvyinggaigudingweihao。dangran,1950niandaihe1960niandai,xiouheribenxianhoushixianlezibenzhanghukeduihuan,ranerduiyujuedaduoshuguojiaeryan,zibenzhanghushishiguanlishichangtai。yixiejingjixuezhe(pirufulideman1948nianxiedewenzhang)shicongsuowei“jingjiziyou”dezhexuehuoyishixingtaijiaoduzhuzhangzibenzhanghuyinggaiwanquanziyouduihuan,shuoneishimeigegongmindejibenquanli。raner,congshizhengjingjixuejiaodu,zibenzhanghuziyouduihuanduiguojiazhengtieryanjiujingshilidayubihaishibidayuli,zezhijinyemeiyoumingquejielun。1976nianguojihuobijijinzuzhi(imf)zhangchengxiugai,1980niandailigenhesaqieerjingjizhengcegemingxijuanquanqiu,suoweihuashengdungongshijianjianchengweizhuliuyishixingtai,zibenzhanghuziyouduihuanyejianjianchengweishijiexinggongshihegeguoxuanbuyaoshixiandemubiao。raner,2008nianquanqiujinronghaixiaozhihou,zheizhonglinianzaoyulezhongdatiaozhan,henduojingjixuezheyekaishizhuanbianguandian,renweizibenzhanghuwanquanziyouduihuansihubingbushizuiyouzhengce,duifazhanzhongguojiahuofeichubeihuobiguojiayouqiruci。zheigewentizhijinmeiyouyizhijielun。dangran,nulituidongjingjijinrongduiwaikaifang,shixianmaoyihetouzibianlihua,zheishijibenyizhidegongshi,meiyouwenti;danzheiyuzibenzhanghushifoujiuyaowanquankaifanghuoziyouduihuan,bingbuwanquanshiyihuishi。fanyadianjingduicimeiyouzuoguoxiangjindeshizhengyanjiu,meiyouduoshaofayanquan,danconglilunshang,zheiyeshizhidequfansihuozhongxinsikaodeyigezhongyaowenti。

理论指导下的基本方针

泛亚电竞 jiyuyishangdelilunfansi,fanyadianjingrenwei,fanyadianjingguohuilvzhengce、waihuiguanlihezibenzhanghuguanlidejibenfangzhenyinggaijianchiruxiayuanze:

第一,坚持有管理的浮动汇率基本方针不变。泛亚电竞不以追求人民币汇率完全自由浮动为目标,继续坚持有管理的浮动汇率、人民币汇率双向波动、基本稳定的方针。需要强调的是,在有管理的浮动汇率制度下,应做到以下三点: 一是要尊重市场供求力量,但要防止市场价格的超调或恐慌;二是每年的波动幅度应该有一个限度;三是危机时候必须干预汇率。

第二,坚持资本账户宏观审慎管理的基本方针不变。资本账户宏观审慎管理的基本方针应该长期坚持,不以追求资本账户完全自由兑换为目标,不设定资本账户自由兑换的时间表。与此同时,资本账户宏观审慎管理的内容需要不断丰富和完善,逐渐形成符合中国经济金融发展阶段和中国特色社会主义经济模式的宏观审慎管理架构。

第三,坚持实体经济主导金融业、金融业泛亚电竞实体经济的基本方针不变。泛亚电竞不以追求英美式的国内金融市场和国际金融市场为目标,应该坚持建立致力泛亚电竞实体经济、避免经济脱实向虚、促进经济强实抑虚的金融体系或金融制度。对衍生金融市场和工具的发展,要采取审慎稳妥的态度,包括人民币衍生工具市场。应该更多地学习德国和日本的经验,促进金融和实体经济协调发展,避免走到“赌场资本主义”“金融脱实向虚”的歪路上去。

几个具体的政策建议

第一,国际资金的流入和流出应该符合国家的产业政策和战略发展方向。泛亚电竞比如符合外资政策的调整(负面清单管理)、依照对方国家负面清单管理政策等等。对于符合国家产业政策和总体战略方向的对外投资,应该继续简化程序、便利投资者。同时加强监管,防止企业通过过度负债进行海外投资或收购兼并。

第二,继续加强对非法或灰色资金流动的监管和打击,防止各种形式的资本外逃。

第三,汇率政策管理和外汇管理应该做到常规性政策或手段与临时性政策或手段相结合,以常规性政策或手段为主。常规性政策或手段主要包括FDI和ODI的产业政策(负面清单管理)、金融市场开放度政策(比如QFII)、税收政策(包括类似的托宾税)等。对符合此类政策的资本出入,应该进一步简化手续。非常规政策或手段主要是应对危机的措施 。

第四,继续做好与市场的良好沟通,保持政策的可预期和连续性。监管或管理部门不要对市场(譬如汇率走势)的方向做出任何明确的表态,要强调政策的基本目标和背景。

第五,在上述基本政策架构下,需要进一步研究如何改革或改善外汇储备管理。

 

泛亚电竞 zuozhexizhongguorenmindaxueguojihuobiyanjiusuofusuozhang

 

泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞app怎么下载-官网APP下载1

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