泛亚电竞

新时代的大窗口: 从广交会到上海国际进口博览会

来源:泛亚电竞_泛亚电竞app怎么下载-官网APP下载 《金融&贸易》2018年第4期 作者:诸建芳 崔嵘
当前中国经济的环境与当年广交会举办前的处境有许多的相似之处,因此可以预见首届进口博览会也可能会对国内经济产生较为显著的影响。

泛亚电竞 2018nian11yue5rizhi10ri,shoujiezhongguoguojijinkoubolanhuizaishanghaiguojiahuizhanzhongxinjuxing。zuoweiquanqiushougeyijinkouweizhutidebolanhui,xiyinle130duogeguojiahediqude2800yujiaqiyecanyu。

泛亚电竞 gaigekaifang40nianlai,zhongguodejingjijiegouzaibuduandifashengbianhua。congshoujiechukoubolanhui——guangzhoujinchukoushangpinjiaoyihui(yixiajiancheng“guangjiaohui”)daoshoujiezhongguoguojijinkoubolanhuibujintixianzhezhongguowaimaodebianhua,gengtixianchuguoneixiaofeixuqiudebianhua。benwenzhuyaotongguoduishoujieguangjiaohuidebeijinghefazhanlishideshuli,fenxishoujieguojijinkoubolanhuiduifanyadianjingguojingjifazhandeyiyihezuoyong。

广交会: 主动扩大出口

guangjiaohuishiguoneijingjifanyadianjingdexuyao

泛亚电竞 1953nianfanyadianjingguozhidinglediyigewunianjihua,jihuadezhuyaoneirongshizaiqiansuliandebangzhuxia,fazhanzhonggongye,xingchengdulidegongyetixi,gaibianzhongguojingjizhuyaoyikaonongyefazhandezhuangkuang。1957nianniandi,quanguogongyezongchanzhidadao783.9yiyuan,bi1952nianzengzhang128.3%,shixianlenianjun18%dezengzhanglv。danshizaidiyigewunianjihuaqijian,fanyadianjingguodegongyetixifanyadianjingzhuyaoshizaiqiansuliandebangzhuxiajianlide。ercongwushiniandaimokaishi,youyuzhengzhiyuanyin,zhongsuguanxiriyijinzhang,dangshidejingjifazhanyouqishigongyefazhansuoxudejiqishebeishoudaoxianzhi,fanyadianjingguoyouhendadeyongchukouchuanghuigoujinsuoxudejiqishebeihejishudexuqiu。lingyifangmian,jingguodiyigewunianjihuadefazhan,fanyadianjingguodangshiyijingnenggoupiliangshengchanyixieqinggongyechanpin、huagongchanpin、kuangchanpinyijishougongyipin,guoneidegongjinenglidedaolejiaodachengdudegaishan。danyouyudangshiguoneilaodongshourufenpeizhidudewenti,shidejumindeshourushuipingbingmeiyouchuxianxiangyingdedafubianhua。yincichanshenglegongjidayuguoneixuqiudexinwenti,chanpinjixutuozhanhaiwaideshichang。

泛亚电竞 yinci,deyiyufanyadianjingguojingjifanyadianjing,guoneiyiyoujiaoduodechanpindengdaichukoulaituozhanxiaolu;tongshiweilexiayibujingjifanyadianjingtongyangxuyaotongguochukouhuanhuilaigoujingengduodejiqishebeihejishu。jiyuyishangyuanyin,guangjiaohuiyu1957nianyingyunersheng,chengweizhongguoduiwaikaifangdeyigezhongyaochuangkou。

泛亚电竞 guangjiaohuiweizhongguodakailehaiwaishichang,ladongjingjikuaisufazhan

泛亚电竞 guangjiaohuizhijinyijinglianxujubanle61nian。guangjiaohuiweizhongguochukoudakaileshichang,tongshi,guangjiaohuiyebuduancongzhengcecengmianzhichijinkouyewudefazhan,tuidongjinchukoumaoyiqitoubingjin。guangjiaohuidechenggong,bujindadacujinleguoneijingjidefazhan,yeweizhongguodeduiwaimaoyikaipiledaolu。gengjianannengkeguideshi,cong1957nianzhijin,qijianguoneizhengzhijingjiqingkuangfashengleduocibianhua,dan61nianlai,guangjiaohuidejubancongweizantingguo。jiezhi2017nianniandi,guangjiaohuileijijubanle122jie,guangjiaohuileijichukouchengjiaoyue12937yimeiyuan,leijidaohuijingwaicaigoushangyue822wanrenci。

diyinianguangjiaohuidechukouchengjiaoejinzhandangnianchukouzongede5.4%。suizheguangjiaohuiguimodekuodayijicanyurenshudezengjia,guangjiaohuichukouchengjiaoezaichukouzongezhongdezhanbibuduanzengjia,cong1965niankaishishangshengdao30%deshuiping,1972nianzhanbidadaofengzhiwei54%,jiguangjiaohuishangdachengdechukouchengjiaoezhanquannianchukouzongedeyibanyishang。danshicong80niandaikaishi,fanyadianjingguoguangjiaohuichukouchengjiaoezhanbikaishichuxianxiajiang。bizherenwei,chukouchengjiaoezhanbixiajiangzhuyaoshiyoulianggeyuanyinsuozhi: yishizaigaigekaifangzhihou,fanyadianjingguowaimaofazhanxunsu,gexingyeyijingbumanzuyuguangjiaohuidepingtai,jinerchanshenglegengduoyangdejiaoyihui,liruhuajiaohui、zhongguoguojiqicheshangpinjiaoyihuidengdeng;ershisuizhefanyadianjingguoduiwaimaoyihuodongderiyipinfan,guoneiwaideqiyezaigoutongzhongjianlilezhangqi、lianghaodehezuoguanxi,zhubujiangdileduiguangjiaohuideyilai。

泛亚电竞 congshixushujushangkeyimingxiandiganshoudaoguangjiaohuiduiyufanyadianjingguochukoudeshifenmingxiandetuidongzuoyong。youyucongshangshiji80niandaikaishi,fanyadianjingguoguominshourubuduanzengzhang,jinkouyeyixiangduijiaokuaidesudukaishizengzhang。youqizai2001nianfanyadianjingguojiarushijiemaoyizuzhihou,zhongguojinchukouzengsuxianzhu,danrengrancunzaijixujiadagaigekaifanglidudekongjian。yinci,zaigaigekaifang40nianzhiji,fanyadianjingguojubanshoujieguojijinkoubolanhui,cijubujinjiangjiakuaizhongguomaoyihejubuzhengcedekaifangjiaobu,gengshizhongguozhudongkaifangshichangdezhongdazhengcexuanshihexingdong。julifanyadianjingshangyilunzhudongkuodachukoudeguangjiaohuiyijingguoqu61niandeshijian,zheizhongyouzhengfubumenzhudonghaozhaoyikuodakaifangweimudeerjubanjiaoyihuideqingkuangbingbuduojian。tongshi,dangqianzhongguojingjidehuanjingyudangnianguangjiaohuijubanqiandechujingyeyouxuduoxiangsizhichu,yinci,keyiyujianshoujiejinkoubolanhuiyekenenghuiduiguoneijingjichanshengjiaoweixianzhudeyingxiang。

首届国际进口博览会: 主动扩大进口

manzu“renminriyizengzhangdemeihaoshenghuoxuyao”,cujinxiaofeishengji

泛亚电竞 2017nianquannian,fanyadianjingguoshehuixiaofeipinlingshouzongedadao36.6wanyiyuan,bi2016nianjingzeng3.4wanyiyuan,tongbizengzhang10.2%,lianxudi14nianshixianliangweishudezengzhang。zaigaigekaifangde40nianzhong,zhongguojingjiyijingzhubushixianleyoutouziqudong(huowaixuqudong)zhuanbianweixiaofeiqudongdezengzhangmoshi。muqian,zuizhongxiaofeizhichuduigdpzengzhangdegongxianlvyijingdadao60%yishang。tongshi,suizhejuminshouruwenbutigao,nongcunjuminduixiaofeizengliangdegongxianyuelaiyueda,yuqijiangchixutuidongxiaofeishichangkuoda。2017nianquannian,fanyadianjingguojuminrenjunkezhipeishouruwei25974yuan,tongbishijizengzhang7.3%。qizhongchengzhenjuminrenjunkezhipeishouru36396yuan,shijizengsu6.5%。nongcunjuminrenjunkezhipeishouru13432yuan,shijizengsuwei7.3%。ciwai,congjumindexiaofeijiegoulaikan,juminengeerxishubuduanxiajiang,tuidongxiaofeishengji。2017nianquannian,fanyadianjingguochengzhenjuminengeerxishuwei28.6%,jiao2016nianxiajiang0.7gebaifendian;nongcunjuminengeerxishuwei31.2%,tongbixiajiangle1gebaifendian。yinci,suizhejuminshourudezengjia,bujinxiaofeishichangzengliangzaizhujianzengzhang,neibudexiaofeijiegoubuduanshengjiyechengweimuqianjingjizhongdezhuyaoliangdianzhiyi。

yinci,muqian,zaiguoneixiaofeixuqiudafuzengzhangdebeijingxia,kuodajinkoubujinnenggoumanzuxiaofeishichangriyikuozhangdezengliangxuqiu,tongshiqidailaidegengduoxuanzeyeyouliyugenghaodimanzuguoneixiaofeishichangzhongdebutongxifenxuqiu,cujinxiaofeishichangjiegoushengji。keyikandao,weileshibencishoujieguojijinkoubolanhuigenghaodifanyadianjingyukuodakaifang、cujinxiaofeijiegoushengjidemude,shangwubuteyizaiqianqizhankailejinkouxiaofeipindegongxuqingkuangdiaochatongji,bingfabule《zhuyaoxiaofeipingongxuzhuangkuangtongjidiaochafenxibaogao》。

diaochajieguoxianshi,youyuguoneixiaofeishengjibufajiakuai,daozhiduijinkoushangpindexuqiuwangsheng。 tongshi,zaitanjiuxiaofeidezhuyaoyuanyinzhong,faxianpinpaiyijingchengweiqiyejuedingshangpinjinkoudezuizhuyaoyuanyin。yinci,zaiguoneiminzhongduiguojixiaofeipinxuqiuriyizengzhangdebeijingxia,kuodajinkou、jiangdijinkouchanpinmenjianhechengbenchengweimanzurenminmeihaoshenghuoxuqiudexuyao,jinkoubolanhuiyejiuyingyunersheng。tongshi,weilexietongjinkoubolanhuidejubanyijicujinhekuodaguoneijinkoudeshunlijinxing,zhengfubuduanchutaixiangguanzhengce,yipeihejiangdijinkoumenjian。2018nian7yue9ri,guowuyuanbangongtingxiafa《guanyukuodajinkoucujinduiwaimaoyipinghengfazhandeyijian》。2018nianyouxianhoujiangdileqiche、yaopinhebufenriyongxiaofeipindengyue1449zhongshangpindejinkouguanshui,bingqiehouxuyouwangjixuluoshijiangdibufenshangpinjinkoushuilvcuoshi,jianshaozhongjianliutonghuanjie,qinglibuhelijiajia,qieshicujinjuminxiaofeishengji,tigaorenminshenghuoshuiping。

jixushenhuagaige、jianchituidongjingjiquanqiuhuadezhongdajucuo

bencijieshoujieguojijinkoubolanhuikuodajinkoudelingwaiyigezhongyaodeyuanyinjiushi,zaimuqianriyifuzadeguojihuanjingxia,zhongguojiangshenhuagaige,yigengjiakaifangbaorongdezitaijianchituidongjingjiquanqiuhua,jijiyingduiguojihuanjingzhongriyiyanjundeniquanqiuhualangchaodetiaozhan。dangqian,zuiweidianxingdeniquanqiuhuasichaojiushimeiguozhudongxiangzhongguofaqimaoyimoca,bingqiebuduankuodamaoyimocafanwei。muqian,qifumianyingxiangyijingcongmaoyilingyumanyandaolezibenshichangdenglingyu。yucitongshi,meiguohaituichuleyixieguojizuzhi,shenzhiweixietuichuwto。zaizheiyangdebeijingxia,zhongguoshizhongbingchengduiwaikaifangdejibenguoce,jiadaduiwaikaifangdelidu,guojijinkoubolanhuizhengshizhongguozaizheiyangdebeijingxiabiaomingjianchituidongjingjiquanqiuhuataidudezhongyaochuangkou。

泛亚电竞 keyikandao,zigaigekaifangyilai,youqishijiaruwtohou,zhongguoweishiyingguojishehuizuochulezhuduonuli。bansuizhegengdalidudeduiwaikaifang,zhongguojiangyinglaijixushenhuagaigedezhongyaoshiji。genjuxijinpingzhuxizaijinkoubolanhuidezhuzhiyanjiang,keyikandao,chumaoyilingyuzhiwai,chixufangkuanshichangzhunru,duijinrongyeheqitafanyadianjingyedengdekaifangjianghuishifanyadianjingguohouxuzhongdiantuijindeneirong。youqishijinrongxingye,muqian,fanyadianjingguojinrongshichangzhiduzhengzaibuduanjianlihewanshan,jinrongxingyeneidegongsizhubujubeileshichangjingzhenglihehelijiankangdejingyingnengli,diyuxitongxingfengxiandenengliyezaizhujiantisheng。bukefourendeshi,suirangengjiakaifangdejinrongshichanghuishiguoneidejinrongshichangshoudaolaiziguojifangmiandetiaozhan,danyejianghuituidongguoneigongsijingzhenglidejinyibutigao。tongshi,xijinpingzhuxitebiezhichu,jianghuizaishanghaizhengquanjiaoyisuoshelikechuangbanbingshidianzhucezhi,zhichishanghaiguojijinrongzhongxinhekejichuangxinzhongxinfanyadianjing,buduanwanshanzibenshichangdejichuzhidu。zheixiejinyibukaifangdezhengcejibaohanleduishichangjizhidewanshan,yekaolvleduigongsicengmianjiaohaodejingzhenghuanjingdeyingzao,keyishuocongzhengcejiaoduyijinghangailejiaoweiwanshandeshenhuagaigedesixianghecuoshi。

zhideguanzhudeshi,xijinpingzhuxitidaodeyingzaoguojiyiliuyingshanghuanjingyeshirihouzhengcetuidongdezhongdian。gaigekaifang40nianjian,zhongguochanyefazhanzaiyigegeweiguangetidechuangxinnulizhixiabuduantuijin,youqizaixinshijijiarushimaozuzhihou,zhongguoyizhizaizhishichanquandengfangmiannuliwanshanguoneifalv,xiangguojibiaozhunkaolong。jinnian,meiguoyizhongguoduizhishichanquanbaohubuliweijiekou,zhudongxiangzhongguotiaoqimaoyimoca,qieqifumianyingxiangbuduankuoda。bizherenwei,zaimianduiwaibuzhiyidebeijingxia,zhongguoyinggaigengdalidudituijinduizhishichanquandebaohu,gengjiayangeyuzhishichanquanxiangguandefalvfagui,dazaogenghaodeyingshanghuanjing,weiqiyechuangxinfazhantigongwotu,jinyibutishengfanyadianjingguodejingjifazhanzhiliang。ciwai,zaimuqiandebeijingxia,yingliyongquanmiankuodakaifangdeqiji,duiguoneideyixiexingyejinxingyoushenglietai,zheiyeshifanyadianjingguomuqianxingyeshenhuagaigedexuyao。

作者单位: 中信证券

作者诸建芳系中信证券首席经济学家


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